757
FXUS63 KGRR 031714
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
114 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
- TURNING COLDER FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FROM
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WHICH WILL
BRING THE A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BACK INTO THE
AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF TO ONE
INCH (SEE HYDRO SECTION BELOW).
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SURGE TO AROUND 60F ONCE AGAIN AS THE WARM
SECTOR SLIDES THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN CWA (SOUTH OF A HOLLAND TO ALMA
LINE). GIVEN A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS IN SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FROM
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WHEN THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS SHUNTED EAST WITH THE FRONT.
- TURNING COLDER FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY
WE TURN COLDER BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO -7C TO -10C ON SUNDAY. THESE VALUES MAY BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE BIT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S ALL THREE DAYS.
- ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
WE WARM UP LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNING
TO THE FORECAST. 50S FOR HIGHS LOOK COMMON LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. WHICH IS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND THEN STALLS OUT INTO FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WET PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN THE
POST COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE
EVENING, BEFORE DETERIORATING AFTER 03Z. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN
TO MVFR THEN IFR AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 TSRA FOR
THE BEST WINDOW FOR EACH SITE GIVEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
GUIDANCE SUPPORT. BETTER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO ARRIVE
UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WAVES REMAIN UP THIS MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF THE
PAST 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND TO THE WEST TODAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL COME
DOWN CONSIDERABLE AND THEREFORE WAVES WILL SLOWLY DROP AS WELL. WE
EXPECT WAVES TO BE BELOW 4 FEET BY 200PM, SO THE CURRENT
EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. WAVES WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES
HOLD BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A LOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
RAINFALL TOTALS THUS FAR BASED ON MRMS RADAR ESTIMATES RANGE FROM
0.75 TO ABOVE 2.00 INCHES IN NARROW SWATHS (SUCH AS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALLEGAN AND OCEANA COUNTIES). OVERALL THE ROUND OF
RAIN THAT OCCURRED IN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO WENT DOWN ABOUT
AS EXPECTED. RISES HAVE COMMENCED ON AREA RIVERS WITH SOME
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE BANKFULL BUT REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. AS
FOR SOME GROUND TRUTH, WFO GRAND RAPIDS SAW 0.96 INCHES AND
MUSKEGON HAD 1.37 INCHES WHICH WAS A RECORD FOR THE DAY.
WE WILL KNOW MORE TODAY IN TERMS OF FORECAST RIVER LEVELS AS
YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL IS ROUTED THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEMS AND
ADDITIONAL FORECAST RAIN IS ADDED TO THE MODELING. THE NEW
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE ADDED RANGES FROM AROUND A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH WHICH WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RISES. WE CURRENTLY
HAVE A FLOOD WATCH OUT FROM BOTH BRIDGETON AND NEWAYGO ON THE
MUSKEGON. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES TO SEE A FEW RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED OVER THE COMING DAYS, BUT A WIDESPREAD
RIVER FLOOD EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...DUKE
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