049
FXUS63 KGRR 080535
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
135 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
- MORE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
- FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE TONIGHT BUT WARM ADVECTION GETS
UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM
ADVECTION "WING" IS DEPICTED BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A WEDGE OF DRY AIR PERSISTING IN THE
LOWEST COUPLE THOUSAND FEET, SO IT IS THE CLASSIC FORECAST PROBLEM
OF WHETHER THE PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE ALOFT, I.E., THE "VIRGA
STORM" OR REACH THE SURFACE. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE LOW CENTER PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BY THURSDAY WITH A
TRAILING FRONT BRINGING RAIN AS IT PUSHES SOUTH THEN STALLS. A
WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS BRINGING
MORE RAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
AND QPF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- MORE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS REVERTS TO THE WESTERN TROUGH,
SOUTHEAST RIDGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE
PLAINS. MORE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH CONDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION. MOST LIKELY TIME WINDOW APPEARS TO BE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
THE MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE 24 HOURS WILL BE
FOCUSED ON VARIOUS WIND RELATED PARAMETERS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE FORECAST IS STARTING WITH THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. WE WILL
SEE MID CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SW BY 12-13Z THAT COULD CONTAIN
SOME LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL OF THE SITES EXCEPT KLAN AND KJXN. KMKG
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN, AND MAYBE EVEN SOME LIGHT SNOW
RIGHT AT THE ONSET. THIS SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY IMPACTS WITH LITTLE
TO NO MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT.
THE LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE OUT FROM THE TERMINALS QUICKLY BY 17Z OR
SO. THIS WILL LEAVE SOME MID CLOUDS AROUND 5K AND 10-15K FT. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY BY THE TIME THE RAIN MOVES OUT. GUSTS UP TO
ABOUT 30 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY, HIGHEST TOWARD KMKG.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, MAYBE DIMINISHING
SOME INLAND AFTER SUNSET. A WIND CORE OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL COME IN
AFTER 00Z AT 2K FT AGL. WE HAVE ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DUE TO
THE MAGNITUDE AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN DIRECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH OF HOLLAND AND A SCA
BETWEEN ST JOSEPH AND HOLLAND FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SOUTH WINDS RAMP UP.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WHEN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MUSKEGON BASIN
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
RIVER BASINS. THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE
RIVERS, WHERE CRESTS FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL LAST SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE RIVERS.
ANOTHER WET WEATHER PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE,
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LMZ844-845.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LMZ846>849.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
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