047
FXUS63 KGRR 081045
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
645 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EARLIER RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY; SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP FRIDAY
- MUCH WARMER SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WHILE COOLING OFF
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
- EARLIER RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY; SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP FRIDAY
AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY, WE ARE WATCHING CHANGES TAKING PLACE
THIS MORNING THAT WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY.
THE TRANSITION IS MARKED BY THE NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER
EASTERN IOWA, SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT WILL
PUSHING TOWARD THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS PRECIPITATION, EVEN THOUGH COULD BE SOMEWHAT WINTRY WITH SOME
SNOW TOWARD LUDINGTON, SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY IMPACTS. FIRST OF ALL,
MOISTURE BELOW 5K FT IS QUITE LIMITED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
MEANS PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT. ALSO, GROUND AND
ROAD SFC TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING, SO THE RATES SHOULD NOT
OVERCOME THE RELATIVELY WARMER GROUND. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
QUICKLY OUT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION NOW LOOKS FOCUSED ON TONIGHT, VS.
WHAT LOOKED LIKE A LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING EVENT
YESTERDAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THE LOW THAT THE WARM FRONT MOVING
THROUGH TODAY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WILL COME IN A BIT QUICKER. THE NW
2/3RDS OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN TONIGHT, AND WILL BE DONE BY 12Z
THU. THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA NOW SHOULD SEE THE RAIN END BY
NOON. THIS LOOKS TO BE JUST A BATCH OF LIGHT APRIL SHOWERS WITH LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH OR RAIN EXPECTED.
THIS FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP SOUTH OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE A JET STREAK MOVES BY AND INTERACTS WITH IT LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY BE UNEVENTFUL TOO,
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WE COULD SEE SOME MINOR IMPACTS UP ACROSS OUR
NE COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. AS THE RRQ OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK INDUCES THE PRECIPITATION, THE LOWER LEVELS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SOME SNOW. THE NBM BLEND IS NOT
SHOWING THIS, BUT MANY OF THE EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF A INCH OR TWO ON GRASSY AREAS OCCURS TO THE NE OF
GRAND RAPIDS.
- MUCH WARMER SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN
SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND A FAIRLY STRONG SFC RIDGE MOVE OVER THE
AREA. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRIDAY SYSTEM IS NOT THAT COLD, SO TEMPS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.
WE SEE A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SETUP IN THE PATTERN FOR SUNDAY AS TODAY.
EARLY SUNDAY, WE WILL SEE A WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE NE. WE WILL THEN
SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE, BUT MUCH WARMER
THAN TODAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT 850 MB TEMPS WARMING TO AROUND +12C BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH A FLOW FROM THE SW.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW ON MONDAY, AS WILL THE SFC
FLOW. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF APRIL. WE WILL SEE THE MOIST AXIS MOVE IN, AND COMBINE
WITH SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WHILE COOLING OFF
THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, SQUASHING THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL
NOT GO FAR THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE AS SHORT WAVE RIDE ALONG IT JUST TO OUR
SOUTH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WE WILL BE FOCUSED ON TWO SEPARATE RAIN EVENTS FOR THIS MORNING
AND THURSDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR.
THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, AND
APPROACHING THE LAKESHORE. IT IS WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES AS IT
ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WE DO THINK THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A FEW SPRINKLES AT KBTL AND KAZO, WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
AT KMKG AND KGRR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING. KMKG COULD
EVEN SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIX IN AT THE ONSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR THIS EVENT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS JUST
NOT SUFFICIENT TO DROP CONDITIONS BELOW VFR.
WE WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS THEN DEVELOP AFTER THE RAIN AS SKIES CLEAR
OUT, AND THE BETTER GRADIENT SETTLES IN. THE WIND WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD. WE HAVE ADDED
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THE FORECAST DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
WINDS AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.
WE WILL SEE A BAND OF RAIN APPROACH KMKG AND KGRR LATE IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. AGAIN, THE RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE LACKING
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH 12Z, SO KEPT VFR CONDITIONS AT
THESE SITES. SOME SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
GALE WARNING FOR THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING CONTINUES TO
LOOK GOOD FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF HOLLAND, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES SOUTH OF HOLLAND ALSO LOOKING GOOD. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS A WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN, SO WE WILL NOT REALIZE ALL OF THE WIND AT THE SFC. IT STILL
WILL BE FORMIDABLE.
ONCE WINDS AND WAVES DIMINISH THURSDAY, WE WILL BE IN FOR A DECENT
BREAK FROM THE WINDS AND WAVES FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. OUR
NEXT MARINE HEADLINE EVENT LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHING IN OVER THE AREA.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
WHEN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MUSKEGON BASIN
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
RIVER BASINS. THIS SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE
RIVERS, WHERE CRESTS FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL LAST SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE RIVERS.
ANOTHER WET WEATHER PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE,
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR LMZ844-845.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
LMZ846>849.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
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