545
FXUS63 KGRR 091719
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
119 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN TODAY
- RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
- LIGHT RAIN TODAY
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS JAMES BAY TODAY WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT BRINGING LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. THE FRONT CLEARS
LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC RIDGING BRINGING CLEARING
SKIES BY EVENING. THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS IN/OH THEN RETURNS LATE
THURSDAY.
- RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT FRIDAY
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED FRONT SPREADS RAIN BACK
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST EMBEDDED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER QPF
APPROACHING AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE THE
RAIN ENDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO HOLD THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE FLOODING RAINS AS PLAINS LOWS TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LAST WEEK THAT BROUGHT
FLOODING AND COULD ALSO RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER DEPENDING ON
DETAILS THAT CANNOT BE RESOLVED YET.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SKIES WILL START AS MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING THIS EVENING. BEGINNING
LATE THIS EVENING, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING SOUTH OF THE
AREA WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE TERMINALS, WITH MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING
FRIDAY BEFORE RAIN MOVES OUT, WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
NO CHANGES TO THE GALE WARNING AND SCA. WINDS SHOULD GO NORTHWEST
AND DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY CLAM INTO THE WEEKEND THEN RAMP UP AGAIN AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
RAIN AMOUNTS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH NOT TO AFFECT
RIVER LEVELS OR CONTRIBUTE TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
OVER HALF AN INCH FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE GRAND AND KALAMAZOO
RIVER BASINS. THIS COULD CAUSE MINOR RISES ON THOSE RIVERS OR MORE
LIKELY THE THEIR TRIBUTARIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...04
HYDROLOGY...04
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