844
FXUS63 KGRR 092302
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
702 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT
- MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK/ SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TONIGHT
SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR I-94. SOUTH OF
THE FRONT, DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 40S WHILE LOWER TO MID 30S
DEWPOINTS WERE NOTED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
MOVES EAST. H8 DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO AROUND 7C ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY 06Z. CAMS SHOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY NEAR THE MI/IN BORDER AROUND 00Z AND SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTH, ONLY TO BE OVERTAKEN AROUND MIDNIGHT BY CONVECTION
STREAMING NORTHEAST WITH THE WAVE FROM THE PLAINS. INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED WITH MUCAPE ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG, BUT THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SOUTH OF I-96 TONIGHT;
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- MUCH WARMER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK/ SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY UPPER RIDGING FRIDAY NIGHT. H8 TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLIMBING
SATURDAY GOING FROM 0C SATURDAY MORNING TO 16C MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RISE TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO THE 60S AND 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WITH THE WARMER WEATHER THOUGH, COMES HIGHER
DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE WE HAVE
THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS
CLIMB TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGD TO BE DRAPED OVER THE
CWA AND SHORT WAVES WILL BE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT PRESENT ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FIRST, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF OF A
FRONT ACROSS THE MICHIGAN/INDIANA BORDER IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT MKG LATE THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS OVERTAKEN BY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR
THAN IFR AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
TSRA, MAINLY IN THE LEADING SHOWER ACTIVITY AT AZO/BTL/JXN BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW TO WARRANT ANY TAF MENTION.
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE RAIN EXITS LATE FRIDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH MOST IF NOT ALL SITES REACHING VFR BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING WERE CANCELED EARLIER
THIS MORNING.
WIND AND WAVES WILL NOT BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT THU APR 9 2026
SIX RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN ON THE GRAND RIVER AS THE CREST
WORKS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD ROBINSON TOWNSHIP. THE FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE GRAND RIVER AT GRAND RAPIDS WAS CANCELED EARLIER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TONIGHT FROM A THIRD TO HALF INCH IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GRAND BASIN WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE MUSKEGON
BASIN. THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY NOT SEND THE RIVER
BACK TO FLOOD STAGE BUT INSTEAD SLOW THE RATE OF FALL.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...04
HYDROLOGY...04
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