226
FXUS63 KGRR 012323
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
723 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT
- COOL WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT
WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. A COLD AIRMASS IS IN PLACE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE 20S AND MODEL SOUNDINGS, INCLUDING THE HRRR, SHOWING
ENOUGH DRYING TO INDICATE STRATUS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS COULD RETURN LATE TONIGHT. STILL, WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL AREAS, EVEN NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN. IF SKIES STAY CLEAR FORE SEVERAL HOURS, WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 20S.
- COOL WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS NEXT WEEK
UPPER TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, BRINGING MOSTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. THUNDER ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE
FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE ORECIP
SHIELD STAYS EAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
EVEN SO, SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY-ENHANCED UPDRAFTS AND IT IS COLD ENOUGH AT
MID AND LOW LEVELS FOR THEM TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL. FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 718 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
MUCH OF LOWER MI IS COVERED IN BKN-OVC VFR STRATOCU, BENEATH AN
UPPER LOW/TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP CLOUDS AT THE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME CLEARING IS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN WI. AS THAT MOVES EAST, WE MAY SEE CIGS SCATTER AT MKG AND
PERHAPS GRR LATER TONIGHT.
EXPECT A SCT-BKN VFR DECK SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT KEEP LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR
STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WINDS AND WAVES INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND UNLESS THE FORECAST CHANGES
APPRECIABLY A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...04
MARINE...OSTUNO
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