354
FXUS63 KGRR 022307
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
707 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT
- COOL WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT
WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR ROUGHLY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR
OSCEOLA AND CLARE COUNTIES. COOL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
WITH A 16 DEGREE DEW POINT CURRENTLY AT CADILLAC. SO EVEN THOUGH
CLOUDS AND WINDS ARE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN, TEMPS COULD STILL PLUMMET TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING BY
MIDNIGHT. THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS ARRIVE
AND WINDS INCREASE.
- COOL WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS NEXT WEEK
UPPER TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, BRINGING MOSTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK CLIPPER ARRIVES SUNDAY, WITH THE SFC LOW
CENTER TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. QPF IS NEGLIGIBLE
AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
THUNDER ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR JAMES BAY AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP SHIELD STAYS EAST OF LOWER
MICHIGAN.
EVEN SO, SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATES
WOULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY-ENHANCED UPDRAFTS AND IT IS COLD ENOUGH AT
MID AND LOW LEVELS FOR THEM TO PRODUCE GRAUPEL. FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS COLD NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME CONTINUES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR AS SUNSET APPROACHES. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDINESS IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER AND SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE. CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING, BUT VFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY. AFTER A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AND ANOTHER SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MIZ038-045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MIZ039-040.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...04
MARINE...OSTUNO
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