650
FXUS63 KGRR 031030
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
630 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE (20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS TODAY, WINDY
- TRENDING WARMER WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY
- COOLER WEDNESDAY INTO WEEKEND, FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE (20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS TODAY, WINDY
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AND SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT
WHETHER SHOWERS MAKE IN INTO THE REGION IS UNCERTAIN. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A PERSISTENT LAYER OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH MAY LIMIT
RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND. MOISTURE ISN'T THAT DEEP EITHER,
BUT THE BEST CHANCE (20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN THE BEST SOURCE OF LIFT IS PRESENT.
THE BIGGER STORY IS THAT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY PICK UP
THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET MOVING OVER THE REGION.
SOUNDINGS MIX DOWN GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED GUSTS COULD APPROACH 45 MPH.
- TRENDING WARMER WITH MORE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY
WE'LL SEE A BRIEF WARM UP WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S INTO
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TODAY AND LOW 70S TOMORROW. THIS IS
DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WE'LL SEE
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION STREAMING INTO THE REGION STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTS MOVE THROUGH
WHICH WOULD IMPACT WHEN DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
(50 TO 70 PERCENT) WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MUSKEGON TO ALMA
LINE. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.
- COOLER WEDNESDAY INTO WEEKEND, FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 30S RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST EACH
NIGHT INTO MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND.
WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WE'LL SEE A VORTICITY MAXIMUM SWING
THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXITS THE AREA, NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES
IN. WE'LL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AS THEY COULD
BRING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES (20 PERCENT) FOR RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE UNTIL 13Z THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS THEN PICK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. GUSTS INITIALLY AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
BEFORE INCREASING TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
LOWER TO AROUND 6000 TO 8000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE (20
TO 30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY REMAIN MORE VIRGA DUE TO
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. ANY RAIN THAT DOES REACH THE SURFACE
WOULD BE LIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. WAVES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD TO 4 TO
7 FEET THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FALL
INTO THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE TONIGHT WITH WAVES SLOWLY FALLING
BELOW 4 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE
MORE MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AND WAVES
BUILDING INTO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE LARGELY NORTH OF HOLLAND.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE THREAT MAY REMAIN OVER LAND.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ038-045-046-
051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ039-040.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
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