840
FXUS63 KGRR 211747
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
147 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
- MAINLY DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ARE DOMINATING THE
WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WE DO HAVE HIGH CLOUDS
BASED AROUND 15K FT AGL FLOATING OVERHEAD PREVENTING A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY FROM BEING EXPERIENCE THIS MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO
FLOATING FROM EAST TO WEST. THE LOW AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE
SEPARATED WAY TOO MUCH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IN THE CLOUD
AND MAKE IT TO THE SFC.
THE MID CLOUDS WILL HOLD THROUGH FRIDAY ALSO, BEFORE WE SEE DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVE IN OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE AREA. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVING
IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A SHORT WAVE THAT
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SW. THE SHORT WAVE ITSELF IS NOT THAT
STRONG. HOWEVER WITH IT MOVING AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW TO THE NW, IT
WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SFC LOW, AND
STRENGTHEN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM THE GULF UP INTO THE AREA.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK, WITH NOT ENOUGH PRESENT TO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF STORMS AT THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF
TEMPORARILY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE IN FOR SUNDAY. THESE WILL BE THE
RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT WILL GET
DISLODGED, AND WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS
ONCE AGAIN NOT IMPRESSIVE, BUT MAY JUST BARELY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A RUMBLE OF THUNDER DURING PEAK HEATING.
- MAINLY DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
WE WILL SEE A NEARLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW THEN SET UP FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM AND SUNDAY SHORT WAVE THAT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS FLOW WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO GOOD CHANCES OF
RAIN, BUT IT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS EITHER.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED
IN THE FLOW. THESE COMBINED WITH PEAK HEATING AND LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES COULD POP A SHOWER OFF.
THE SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS SHOULD
DIMINISH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS BECAUSE WE SEE THE
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES GET PUSHED EAST BY A STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RISING HEIGHTS FROM THE
RIDGE BUILDING WILL SQUASH ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD TRY TO
DEVELOP, AND ALSO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOME GUST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH MINOR WIND SHIFTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. THERE IS A VERY WEAK
JET ALOFT, AROUND 30 TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT .HOWEVER IT IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT LLWS IN TAF. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
EAST BECOMING GUSTY TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TO NEED ANY MARINE HEADLINES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA HAS BROUGHT IN
OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A SCA FOR OUR AREA, AND WAVES
SURELY WON'T WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...CERU
MARINE...NJJ
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