180
FXUS63 KGRR 220527
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
127 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, LOWER CHANCES (20 TO 40
PERCENT) SUNDAY
- MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
- RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, LOWER CHANCES (20 TO 40
PERCENT) SUNDAY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF FRIDAY WITH GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK, SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.
RAIN THEN MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED SO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER IS LOW (LESS THAN 20
PERCENT). DRIER AIR THEN ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE LOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE DRIER AIR MAY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
- MAINLY DRY NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND HIGH PRESSURE LOOK TO BE PRESENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE ARE DIVERGING SOLUTIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IF WE SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION THESE CHANCES WILL INCREASE, HOWEVER IF THE DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR.
HIGHS NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
MID/HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. WE WILL
SEE WINDS INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES, WITH GUSTS
REACHING AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OR SO THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NE.
LOWER CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN VFR TO START WITH CLOUDS
COMING IN AROUND 4-5K FT. THE CLOUDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO
LOWER END MVFR OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
IT DOES SEEM THAT RAIN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WHEN THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED GUSTS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A MUSKEGON TO MOUNT PLEASANT LINE.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 40 MPH
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WILL
CREATE CONDITIONS FOR FIRES TO EASILY SPREAD. PAY ATTENTION TO ANY
BURN BANS AND AVOID OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT MAY CREATE A SPARK.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...RAH
FIRE WEATHER...RAH
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