100
FXUS63 KGRR 222328
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
728 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TREND CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST
- SUNDAY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
- WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AHEAD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TREND CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST
PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES. DRY,
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DWINDLE DOWN THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
TREND CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WIDESPREAD QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH UPWARDS OF A
HALF AN INCH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN. THE THUNDER THREAT
CONTINUES TO DWINDLE. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY WITH A DECENT CAP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS THAT PERSISTS
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TREK EASTWARD BRISKLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SUNDAY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES, HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
FRONTAL PATTERN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
THROUGH CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE US 127 CORRIDOR.
- WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AHEAD
THE COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY
EVENING. ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR WEAK SHORT WAVES TO PASS THROUGH. THERE
IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SHOWER TO POP HERE OR THERE
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OR OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S INTO THE LOW 80S REMAIN LIKELY. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE
FOR AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE FROM OUT EAST AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN RAIN WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LOWERING TO IFR DURING SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT
TIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A COOL/STABLE LAKE WILL CONTINUE AND FOR THE
MOST PART THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT. SOME WIND FROM BETTER
MIXING OVER THE WARMER LAND MASS COULD APPROACH WIND THRESHOLDS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ONCE THESE HIGHER OFFSHORE WINDS DIMINISH ON SATURDAY, WE SHOULD SEE
AN EXTENDED QUIET PERIOD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, WE ARE LOOKING AT THE VERY LEAST AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY TODAY WITH THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST DANGER WILL BE THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GO,
ESPECIALLY INTO NORTHERN LOWER. PER COORDINATION WITH THE LAND
MANAGEMENT AGENCIES, GREEN UP HAS OCCURRED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF U.S.-
10, LOWERING THE THREAT A BIT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS IN THE JACKPINE
FORESTS NORTH OF U.S.-10 WHERE THEY ARE VERY VOLATILE AT THIS POINT
IN THE GREEN UP PROCESS.
A COORDINATION CALL WILL OCCUR WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AND
STATE AND FEDERAL LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES TO DETERMINE WHETHER TO
HANDLE THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WITH A RED FLAG WARNING, OR JUST
ENHANCED MESSAGING BASED ON FUEL CONDITIONS AND EXPECTED WIND/LOW RH
COMBINATIONS.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...OSTUNO
MARINE...CERU
FIRE WEATHER...RAH
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