305
FXUS63 KGRR 230540
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
140 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TREND CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST
- SUNDAY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
- WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AHEAD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TREND CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST
PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES. DRY,
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO DWINDLE DOWN THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. THE
TREND CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WIDESPREAD QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH UPWARDS OF A
HALF AN INCH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN. THE THUNDER THREAT
CONTINUES TO DWINDLE. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONTINUED LACK OF
INSTABILITY WITH A DECENT CAP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS THAT PERSISTS
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TREK EASTWARD BRISKLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SUNDAY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES, HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
FRONTAL PATTERN. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
THROUGH CENTRAL MICHIGAN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE US 127 CORRIDOR.
- WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER AHEAD
THE COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY SUNDAY
EVENING. ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR WEAK SHORT WAVES TO PASS THROUGH. THERE
IS LIKELY JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SHOWER TO POP HERE OR THERE
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES OR OTHER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S INTO THE LOW 80S REMAIN LIKELY. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE
FOR AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE FROM OUT EAST AND BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WE HAVE SEEN THE LOWER CLOUDS SPREAD IN OVER JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 05Z THIS MORNING. MID CLOUDS REMAIN AT KMKG, BUT
THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN ANYTIME NOW. CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN
VFR AT THE NORTHERN SITES, TO MVFR AT THE I-94 TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
KMKG THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. RAIN WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALSO.
THE RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH THAT, CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
MUCH THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING. THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL THEN EXPECT TO DROP
AFTER SUNSET WITH LESS MIXING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
OFFSHORE FLOW AND A COOL/STABLE LAKE WILL CONTINUE AND FOR THE
MOST PART THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ALOFT. SOME WIND FROM BETTER
MIXING OVER THE WARMER LAND MASS COULD APPROACH WIND THRESHOLDS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ONCE THESE HIGHER OFFSHORE WINDS DIMINISH ON SATURDAY, WE SHOULD SEE
AN EXTENDED QUIET PERIOD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE NEXT WEEK.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CERU
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...CERU
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