683
FXUS63 KGRR 232315
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
715 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY
- WARMER WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK
- DRY AND COOL LATE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SUNDAY
RADAR SHOWS THAT ONGOING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN, OUR NEXT MID-LEVEL WAVE ARRIVES DRIVING A
LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCAPE
VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE HIGH AMBIENT MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS. THE BEST SIGNAL IS ACROSS THE US-127 CORRIDOR WHERE LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF OF HURON MAY AID BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.
- WARMER WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK
WE SEE LARGE SCALE RIDGING MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES ARE
LOW GIVEN THAT THIS WILL FORCE THE POLAR JET NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WORTH MENTIONING, MONDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, BOTH WITH LOW CHANCES.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE A LOW (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST CWA AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE
INTERACTS WITH CONVERGENCE OFF OF LAKE HURON WITH THE AMBIENT
FLOW. THE BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
HOWEVER.
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH, A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY, AND A SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO REACH THE AREA. GIVEN THESE
FEATURES DON'T REALLY OVERLAP ACROSS THE AREA, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE LOW, MAXING OUT AT 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE I-94
CORRIDOR. 850MB TEMPS ALSO CLIMB INTO THE MID-TEENS EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.
- DRY AND COOL LATE NEXT WEEK
ONCE THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA GOING INTO THURSDAY,
AN OVERALL COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET AND BY EXTENSION THE DEGREE OF THE
COOLDOWN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN DRY CONDITIONS GIVEN
PREDOMINANT SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRIER AMBIENT
AIRMASS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
CEILINGS ARE HOLDING ON IN MOST LOCATIONS AT OR BELOW 2,000 FEET
THIS EVENING, WITH SOME TENDENCY FOR SCATTERING POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE AGAIN
TOWARD IFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY LATER IN THE NIGHT AS WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND LOWER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS PLENTIFUL. RAIN SHOWERS
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING. CLEARING TO VFR IS FAVORED LATER IN THE DAY, FROM
WEST TO EAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BY EXTENSION LIGHTER WINDS/MORE
SUBDUED WAVES IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS HEADLINES
ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY BEFORE COMING BACK ONSHORE GOING INTO SUNDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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