487
FXUS63 KGRR 191758
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
158 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH SMOKE TODAY
- SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
- DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
- DRY WITH SMOKE TODAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
TODAY AS NORTHERLY POST-COLD FRONTAL FLOW BRINGS SMOKE BACK INTO THE
AREA. ACCORDING TO MICHIGAN'S DEPT. OF ENVIRONMENT, GREAT LAKES, AND
ENERGY; THE LATEST HRRR AND RRFS SMOKE MODELS SHOW A BAND OF SMOKE
MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL CREATE A
PERIOD OF AIR CONDITIONS THAT WILL BE UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUP
PERIOD TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL TRENDS, ALONG
WITH A PATTERN SHIFT SHOWS A REDUCTION IN SMOKE TOMORROW EVENING.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY,
DRIVEN EAST BY A SHORTWAVE AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
QUESTIONS GIVEN STRONG MLCIN AS TO THE EXTENT THAT THESE STORMS MAKE
IT ACROSS THE LAKE. REGARDLESS, GIVEN THE DYNAMICS RAINFALL IS
LIKELY. ONE THING WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IS IF A MCS CAN DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IF IT DOES, THERE IS A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. THUS THE SPC'S SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
THE AREA.
- DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK
SURFACE RIDGING AND A DRY MOISTURE PROFILE THEN RETURN POST COLD-
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. HIGHS FALL INTO THE 70S MID WEEK
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 80S BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
MAIN CHALLENGE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORY CONTINUES TO BE SMOKE AT
GROUND LEVEL TO 6,000 FEET. VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 3SM AND 8SM BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION.
NOT ENOUGH HORIZONTAL MOVEMENT OF AIR TO GET THE SMOKE OUT OF
HERE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME EXCHANGE OF
CLEANER AIR FROM THE TOP OF THE SCATTERED/BROKEN 4,500 TO 6,000 FT
CUMULUS CLOUD LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS HELPING TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE THINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY/BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR A FEW HOURS AS WAVES AT THE
SOUTH HAVEN SPOTTER BUOY HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL. WINDS AND WAVES
THEN STAY BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO THE
START OF MONDAY. WINDS THEN INCREASE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ037>040-
043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...CAS
MARINE...THOMAS
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