743
FXUS63 KGRR 220659
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
259 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF SAT WITH SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPS
- NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF SAT WITH SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPS
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
YESTERDAY REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE TROUGH
AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA, PUTTING THE AREA UNDER CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS LEADING TO INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
ONLY SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 MB HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO AROUND +7C BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AND UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TODAY. WE WILL SEE THEM
SLOWLY RECOVER THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN THE 850 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND
+16-17C, HELPING TO BRING WARM AIR UP NEAR 90F BACK TO THE AREA. DEW
POINTS WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME
ALSO.
- NEXT CHANCES OF RAIN SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON
THE CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, AND SFC RIDGING WILL MOVE SUFFICIENTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TO SPILL
OVER THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE AXIS, AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EVEN THOUGH THE SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP NEXT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE IS NOT DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF.
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM THE CORN FIELDS IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL
HELP INCREASE THE MOISTURE SOME. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ROUNDS
OF STORMS AFFECTING THE AREA AS THESE WAVES WILL BE RIDING THE HEAT
DOME TO OUR WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
SKIES HAVE CLEARED UP A BIT AS MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
CANADA. THERE ARE STILL A FEW POCKETS OF MAINLY VFR CLOUDS. WE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A CLEARING TREND TONIGHT, WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NNW UNDER 10 KNOTS.
WE WILL SEE SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD COVER DEVELOP, IN THE FORM
OF HIGH BASED CUMULUS BASED AROUND 6-7K FT. IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUD COVER, WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25
KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE TOWARD 00Z TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENTS AS IS THIS MORNING FOR TODAY. THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
HAVE MOVED BY THE AREA, BUT WINDS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE
GENERATING HIGHER WAVES WITH COLDER AIR COMING IN OVER THE WARMER
LAKE. THE EXPIRATION TIME OF LATE THIS EVENING LOOKS VERY GOOD.
AFTER THE CURRENT HEADLINES, THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE COMING IN. IT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL LATER SATURDAY FOR STRONGER WINDS AND
BUILDING WAVES TO POSSIBLY REQUIRE HEADLINES.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064-071.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...NJJ
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