069
FXUS63 KGRR 050807
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
407 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
- TEMPERATURES TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
FEEL MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY, BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITIES TO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY. CURRENT
REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS CONFIRM A SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
DESPITE THE DEEPER CONVECTION PUSHING SOUTH AN HOUR OR TWO AGO.
THE SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN FLOW ALOFT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGS ON INTO
AT LEAST THE MIDDAY HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY HAVE 20-30 PCT CHANCES FOR A SHOWER
MAINLY THIS MORNING.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
BUFKIT OVERVIEWS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONFIRM
THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THOSE THAT HAVE RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN IN THE LAST 3-5 DAYS IT WILL GIVE THOSE AREAS A CHANCE
TO DRY OUT.
- TEMPERATURES TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD (NORMALS FOR TODAY: HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S / LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S). WE WILL SEE HIGHS PUSH INTO THE 80S
ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID
WEEK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
SATURDAY MORNING. A FINAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRED WITH THE FRONT IN THE PAST 4 HOURS, BUT THIS HAS MOVED
SOUTH/WEAKENED AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH DAYBREAK. INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE TAF
SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT ON NORTHEAST WINDS.
THE MAIN ITEM OF NOTE HOWEVER IN THIS TAF PERIOD WILL OCCUR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...LOW CLOUDS AND
SOME LIGHT FOG. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE VARIABLE BASES RANGING FROM
LIFR TO MVFR. WE EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILINGS TO OCCUR THROUGH
SUNRISE OR ROUGHLY 11Z TO 12Z. THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
SATURDAY MORNING WE SHOULD SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIFT
REACHING VFR LEVELS DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON LAKE
MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE GREAT LAKES WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL EITHER BE LIGHT OR OFF SHORE WHICH WILL
KEEP WAVES AT OR BELOW 2 FEET.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
MARINE...DUKE
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