844
FXUS63 KGRR 111804
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
204 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW
BRINGS SOME MOISTURE. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TO BUMP UP
NBM POPS FROM AROUND ZERO TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT IS LOCATED.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A
SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TOUCH OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH
SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER SURGES CLOSE 2 INCHES, SO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS THERE AS
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY AND MBE VECTORS ARE LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A
RAINY STRETCH OF WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECT OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS LIKELY AT THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES. A STRONG INVERSION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT AT JXN,
AND AT AZO AND BTL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR VSBYS FORMING AROUND 08Z TO 10Z AND LIFTING BETWEEN 12Z TO
14Z.
A SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD
BRING IN SOME MID TO LOW CLOUDS TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GALES ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ847>849.
DISCUSSION...OSTUNO
AVIATION...CERU
MARINE...OSTUNO
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