015
FXUS63 KGRR 031050
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
650 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FROST THIS MORNING, SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT
- SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOSTLY DRY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- AREAS OF FROST THIS MORNING, SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT
CLEAR SKIES WILL AID IN LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S
BRINGING A RISK FOR FROST IN INLAND AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF M-20.
THERE IS ALSO SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD THE
US-127 CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE TOWARD LUDINGTON. ANY
SHALLOW FOG SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF WITHIN AN HOUR OF SUNRISE THIS
MORNING.
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN A SIMILAR AREA TO
TODAY. A RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FROST AND POTENTIALLY FREEZING
CONDITIONS EXISTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S.
- SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOSTLY DRY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATE FRONT WITH SWING THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LARGELY NORTH OF I-96 WITH THE
BEST CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) NORTH OF M-20. WITH THE RECENT
TRENDS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS WERE INCREASED OVER THE
NEXT FEW FORECASTS AND EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS WITH
SOME EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THE QUESTION WILL BE IF MOISTURE
IS PRESENT WHEN THESE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. AT THIS TIME WITH
THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES IT IS HIT OR MISS WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. OVERALL NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
ANY DAY BEYOND SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE NBM POPS
WHICH SHOW DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
OTHER THAN SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY TRY TO
MOVE INTO MKG/GRR/LAN 6Z TO 12Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE INTO THE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
EASTERLY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP WAVES AROUND A FOOT OR LESS
TODAY. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH WAVES BUILDING TOWARD 3 TO 5 FEET WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVES NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE WINDS AND PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE,
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH THE GAYLORD OFFICE, WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER.
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF MUSKEGON.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ038>040-044-
045.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH
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