062
FXUS63 KGRR 032343
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
743 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
- LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT
TONIGHT SEES A MID-LEVEL WAVE TRACK ACROSS THE AREA DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT WITH IT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE ROBUST
MID-LEVEL WAVE AND BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY. THIS BRINGS AT LEAST LOW
RAIN CHANCES AS FAR SOUTH AS I-96, POTENTIALLY FURTHER SOUTH, AND
WARRANTS SCATTERED POPS NORTH OF APPROX. M20.
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK
CONDITIONS THEN ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EVEN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PERSISTING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW, MOISTURE QUALITY IS POOR. WILL KEEP THE GOING NBM
DRY FORECAST GIVEN THAT WHICH KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY.
THE MAIN CONCERN IS FROST, PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 0C ALONG
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS AND SURFACE HIGH. THIS WILL FAVOR AMPLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. SUNDAY NIGHT FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THE COLDEST
AIR ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. MORE
WIDESPREAD FROST IS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIALLY FREEZING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE KNOWN COLD
HOLLOWS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AZO AND BTL HOWEVER,
CHANCES ARE SLIM. WINDS WILL MIX OUT FROM THE WEST AROUND 18Z WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
DIURNAL CU HAVE DEVELOPED PREDOMINANTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94. MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD SEE INDEFINITE CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
INTERMITTENT VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AT AZO/BTL AND HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP ACCORDINGLY.
TONIGHT, WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN WITH SHOWERS LIKELY
REMAINING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. THEN ELEVATED DEWPOINTS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT BRING ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY MORNING.
CLOUD BASES WITH THIS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 2.5-3.5KFT RANGE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY SUNDAY
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ847>849.
DISCUSSION...THOMAS
AVIATION...CERU
MARINE...THOMAS
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