901
FXUS63 KGRR 041852
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
252 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK
- LIMITED CHANCE OF FROST TONIGHT...BETTER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK BRINGS WITH IT SOME CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR PRODUCING
ANYTHING TOO HEAVY OR TO WIDESPREAD. BEST CHANCE FOR THAT SHOULD
BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- LIMITED CHANCE OF FROST TONIGHT...BETTER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT
NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR POCKETS OF FROST TONIGHT IN OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES BUT LOWER LEVELS SHOULD REMAINED MIXED ENOUGH TONIGHT TO
KEEP THE TEMPERATURES UP. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR FROST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH LESS WIND AND CLOUDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, 18Z TO 18Z. IF THERE IS ONE, IT IS THE MVFR
CEILINGS THAT HAVE PRESSED INTO THE MKG AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE AND
SATELLITE LOOPS SUPPORT A THINNING OF THESE CEILINGS AND LIKELY A
RISE AS WELL GIVEN WE ARE APPROACHING THE MAX IN DIURNAL HEATING.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE FEEL THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT AND BEGIN
TO THIN/SCATTER OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING THE MVFR CONDITIONS TO MAKE IT INTO THE OTHER TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS BELOW 3K FEET AT
GRR, BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO.
OTHERWISE WE EXPECT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT GIVEN WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL GUST INTO THE
10-20 KNOT RANGE WILL SETTLE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO KEEP WAVES UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY MONDAY. HAVE EXTENDED THE EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
AND ADDED THE SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE WAVES WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING. COULD SEE WAVES LINGER INTO MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOME...THOUGH WINDS QUIET DOWN AND MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE
SMALLER WAVES. TUESDAY COULD BE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT DAY WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...MACZKO
AVIATION...DUKE
MARINE...MACZKO
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