841
FXUS63 KGRR 161852
AFDGRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
252 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND WIND DECREASE TONIGHT
- FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS TONIGHT
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- RAIN AND WIND DECREASE TONIGHT
RAIN AND WIND BOTH DECREASE AS WE MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A
DEFINITE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE RAIN AND WE SEE IN THE MODELS A
DISTINCT DOWNWARD TREND IN BOTH INTENSITY AND AREAL EXTENT BETWEEN
800PM AND 1100PM. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM 1100PM ON.
AS FOR THE WIND, THE PEAK IN THE WIND WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A NOTED DOWNWARD TREND IN GUSTINESS AFTER 1100PM.
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REACH 20-30 MPH WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS. AFTER MIDNIGHT ESPECIALLY WINDS WILL DECREASE
CONSIDERABLY.
- FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS TONIGHT
WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR OUR SOUTHERN 2
ROWS OF COUNTIES, ESSENTIALLY FROM HOLLAND TO LANSING TO THE
SOUTH. TO THE NORTH OF THERE WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING. THE
EXCEPTION IS THE U.S. 10 ROW OF COUNTIES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED DUE TO EARLIER FREEZES.
WE ARE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S
NORTH IN CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTH
TOWARDS I-94.
FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR IN SPOTS AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA WHERE
THERE WILL BE LESS WIND.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA WEATHER BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND THE ECWMF ARE ENTIRELY DRY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH LEADS TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE DRY FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FROM THE 50S THIS WEEKEND TO THE
60S NEXT WEEK. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR TODAY IN GRAND RAPIDS FOR
REFERENCE IS 61. WE WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND MODERATING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS. SHOWERS CONTINUE BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND 21Z TO 00Z THIS
EVENING. SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VISIBLTIITES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. CEILINGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR
UNTIL 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL RANGE AROUND 1500 TO 2500 FEET.
AFTER 00Z WE'LL SEE CLEARING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER FROM 03Z TO 09Z SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE PEAK PHASE,
WHICH IS BETWEEN 200PM AND 100AM. THE ACTUAL PEAK WILL OCCUR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN ROUGHLY 400PM AND 800PM. WE
HAVE HAD WINDS REACH GALE FORCE ALREADY, BUT THE MORE SUSTAINED
GALE IS JUST NOW COMMENCING. WAVES HAVE PUSHED TOWARDS 10 FEET IN
OUR NEARSHORE AREA, BUT SHOULD EXCEED 10 FEET AS WE MOVE FORWARD
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. BOTTOM LINE, THE GALE WARNING LOOKS GOOD.
SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMPS UP ON SATURDAY AND FROM SATURDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WIND/WAVE EVENT.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EVENT, BUT IT
MAY BE BORDERLINE GALE IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MIZ064>067-071>074.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ844>849.
DISCUSSION...DUKE
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...DUKE
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