717
FXUS62 KGSP 080617
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
117 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THIS THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW NORMAL, BEFORE HIGHS TREND BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 100 AM FRI: PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD
COVER OVER THE PIEDMONT, AND SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG, REMAIN
GENERALLY ON TRACK. SATELLITE TRENDS CONTINUE TO REVEAL SOME
VARIABILITY AND WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE A HIGHER BASED STRATOCU
LAYER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN BORDER COUNTIES, WHICH HAS INHIBITED
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC BASED STRATUS/FOG. THE LOW STRATUS SHOULD
FILL IN AS THOSE CLOUDS ADVECT OUT, AND CEILINGS SHOULD LOWER. IN
WESTERN NC VSBY STILL IS MOSTLY ABOVE 1 MILE, BUT THAT AREA HAS SEEN
LESS VARIABILITY, SO CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER
THERE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. WILL ISSUE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF WNC WHERE THE FOG HAS ALREADY
BECOME DENSE; WILL RIDE ON THE SPS ELSEWHERE UNTIL IT IS CLEAR
HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BECOME THERE. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
OTHERWISE, THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO MIX OUT IN THE
MORNING AND THE LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO TAKE TIME TO LIFT AND
SCATTER. VISIBILITIES MAY NOT IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL THE LATE
MORNING HRS, WHILE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 MAY NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT SCATTERING OF THE LOWER CLOUDS UNTIL THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS, AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO OUR FCST AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING NOTABLY DRIER AIR WITH DEWPTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP
CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY, THEY WILL QUICKLY WARM ONCE CLOUD COVER DISSIPATES,
ENHANCED BY COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BNDY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO 80+ DEGREES OUTSIDE THE MTNS,
SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH AND/OR SET DAILY RECORDS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
2) NO FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES
3) DRY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
SATURDAY DUE TO COLD AIR DAMMING, HIGHS WILL STILL END UP ~3-6
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. BOTH THE SFC HIGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF I-85 FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND COLD AIR
DAMMING WILL ALL WORK TOGETHER TO LIMIT HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL END UP ~7-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL END UP ~15 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES LINGER THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA
2) ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
3) DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY ONGOING MONDAY MORNING, LINGERING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REBOUND TO ~10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO SW/W'LY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT THE
COLD AIR DAMMING. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH OUT OF THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE
LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW RAIN ARRIVING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW RAIN ARRIVING UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SPLIT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT, CONFIDENCE ON POPS WILL BE LOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
THUS, CAPPED POPS TO CHANCE (50% OR LESS) FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CONFIDENCE HIGH ON RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
LATE MORNING, AND PER SATELLITE KAVL AND KHKY LOOK UNLIKELY
TO IMPROVE FROM THEIR CURRENT STATUS UNTIL FOG/STRATUS LAYER
DISSIPATES. ELSEWHERE SOME VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPGLIDE
REGIME CONTINUING OVER A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT WITH BREAKS
IN CLOUD LAYERS STILL SEEN ON SATELLITE AND WITH A HIGHER STRATOCU
DECK IN PLAY. AT KCLT AND THE SC SITES, TEMPOS WERE USED LIBERALLY
TO HANDLE VARIATIONS UNTIL SETTLING INTO MOSTLY LIFR. A LIGHT WIND
MAY OCCUR AT TIMES AT THESE SITES, MAINLY FROM THE WSW. BY LATE
MORNING INSOLATION SHOULD ERODE THE SFC BASED CLOUDS AND MIXING
WILL BRING DOWN MORE NW WIND; SOME LOW VFR CU MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTN. WINDS WILL INCREASINGLY FAVOR NW THRU THE AFTN, BECOMING NE
THIS EVENING AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FULLY SETTLES PAST THE AREA. THE
FRONT SHOULD INDUCE ENOUGH DRYING THAT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCU AT THAT LEVEL COULD DEVELOP NEAR KAVL AND
THE SC SITES.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>070-501>510.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JPT/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
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