232
FXUS62 KGSP 080842
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THIS THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW NORMAL, BEFORE HIGHS TREND BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM FRI: A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL VA TO NORTH
MS. WE REMAIN UNDER EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS, AND
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE PBL AND ARGUABLY WEAK CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPED. A FEW
TRACE OR HUNDREDTH PRECIP ACCUMS WERE REPORTED ON AUTOMATED GAUGES
IN THE LOWER PIEDMONT, BUT WITH NO CLEAR RETURNS ON RADAR THAT MAY
JUST BE CONDENSATION FROM FOG. WE RETAIN A VERY SMALL POP MENTION
SOUTHEAST OF I-85 SINCE SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ARE PLAUSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE FOG REMAINS SOMEWHAT PATCHY ACROSS PARTS OF GA/SC WHERE
HIGHER CLOUDS DID EXIST EARLIER IN THE NIGHT, SLOWING RADIATIONAL
COOLING, THERE ARE REPORTS OF VISIBILITY 1/2 MILE OR LESS ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPTING A PORTION OF FAR NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WAS TO EXPAND OUR PREVIOUSLY ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA, VALID UNTIL 9 AM. A FEW SPOTS COULD CERTAINLY
GO ONE OR EVEN TWO HOURS LONGER, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD CLEAR BY
THEN. SOME PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED AS NEEDED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY, ALTHOUGH ONSET
OF MIXING SHOULD HELP BRING SOME OF THE ALREADY NORTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. APPRECIABLE POST-FRONTAL DRYING LOOKS
UNLIKELY TO SET IN UNTIL TONIGHT. EVEN GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
THE DENSE MORNING FOG SUGGESTS WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNUSUALLY WARM
TEMPS AGAIN TODAY, AS THICKNESSES REMAIN ELEVATED AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL WARMING FACTOR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
80 ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AGAIN TODAY AND WILL COME CLOSE
TO DAILY RECORDS (SEE BELOW). THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, BUT VERY SKINNY
CAPE IS SHOWN ON SOME PROFILES AND A FEW MODELS SPIT OUT VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. MOST LIKELY JUST CUMULUS WILL RESULT, PERHAPS SPITTING
OUT A FEW SPRINKLES, SO NO SHOWER MENTION IS INCLUDED. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE NE TONIGHT AND INCREASE AS CAA DEVELOPS. TEMPS STILL
ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT MORE THAN 10 ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT;
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES OVERNIGHT AND
WITH THAT AND WIND, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
2) NO FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES
3) DRY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
SATURDAY DUE TO COLD AIR DAMMING, HIGHS WILL STILL END UP ~3-6
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. BOTH THE SFC HIGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF I-85 FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND COLD AIR
DAMMING WILL ALL WORK TOGETHER TO LIMIT HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL END UP ~7-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL END UP ~15 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES LINGER THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA
2) ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
3) DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY ONGOING MONDAY MORNING, LINGERING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REBOUND TO ~10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO SW/W'LY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT THE
COLD AIR DAMMING. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH OUT OF THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE
LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW RAIN ARRIVING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW RAIN ARRIVING UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SPLIT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT, CONFIDENCE ON POPS WILL BE LOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
THUS, CAPPED POPS TO CHANCE (50% OR LESS) FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: CONFIDENCE HIGH ON RESTRICTIONS THROUGH
LATE MORNING, AND PER SATELLITE KAVL AND KHKY LOOK UNLIKELY
TO IMPROVE FROM THEIR CURRENT STATUS UNTIL FOG/STRATUS LAYER
DISSIPATES. ELSEWHERE SOME VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH WEAK UPGLIDE
REGIME CONTINUING OVER A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT WITH BREAKS
IN CLOUD LAYERS STILL SEEN ON SATELLITE AND WITH A HIGHER STRATOCU
DECK IN PLAY. AT KCLT AND THE SC SITES, TEMPOS WERE USED LIBERALLY
TO HANDLE VARIATIONS UNTIL SETTLING INTO MOSTLY LIFR. A LIGHT WIND
MAY OCCUR AT TIMES AT THESE SITES, MAINLY FROM THE WSW. BY LATE
MORNING INSOLATION SHOULD ERODE THE SFC BASED CLOUDS AND MIXING
WILL BRING DOWN MORE NW WIND; SOME LOW VFR CU MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTN. WINDS WILL INCREASINGLY FAVOR NW THRU THE AFTN, BECOMING NE
THIS EVENING AS BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FULLY SETTLES PAST THE AREA. THE
FRONT SHOULD INDUCE ENOUGH DRYING THAT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCU AT THAT LEVEL COULD DEVELOP NEAR KAVL AND
THE SC SITES.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 11-08
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 2023 39 1976 58 2000 18 1967
1980 1951
KCLT 81 2023 45 1976 64 1888 25 1967
KGSP 82 2023 50 1991 60 1895 23 1903
1915 1976
1971
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-
028-029.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ008>014-
019-101>109.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...GSP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page