355
FXUS62 KGSP 081150
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 AM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES
BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THIS THE WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW NORMAL, BEFORE HIGHS TREND BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 600 AM FRI: A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IS PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NW. NORTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ALOFT, AND SOME VERY
SLIGHT SFC DRYING HAS EVEN MANAGED TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INCREASING TO A DEGREE OR TWO WHERE DENSE
FOG HAD FORMED EARLIER. THIS HAS ALLOWED VSBY TO IMPROVE IN SOME
SPOTS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CURRENTLY GOES TIL 9 AM. MAIN REASON
NOT TO CANCEL EARLY OR PARE BACK IS THE FACT THAT SCATTERED SITES
ARE STILL SEEING VSBY BELOW 1/2 MILE, BUT ALSO POSSIBILITY OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OR STRATUS AT OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WHICH AGAIN
MAY DETERIORATE CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART TODAY, STARTING OFF MAINLY
SW TO W AT THE SURFACE BUT TRENDING NORTHWESTERLY WITH ONSET OF
MIXING. APPRECIABLE POST-FRONTAL DRYING LOOKS UNLIKELY TO SET IN
UNTIL TONIGHT. WE WILL EXPERIENCE UNUSUALLY WARM TEMPS AGAIN TODAY,
AS WE'RE HAVING AN EXCEPTIONALLY WARM START--DAYBREAK TEMPS ALREADY
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS--PLUS THICKNESSES REMAIN ELEVATED AND DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL WARMING FACTOR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR 80
ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AGAIN TODAY AND WILL COME CLOSE TO DAILY
RECORDS (SEE BELOW). THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, BUT VERY SKINNY CAPE IS SHOWN
ON SOME PROFILES AND A FEW MODELS SPIT OUT VERY LIGHT SHOWERS IN
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOST LIKELY
JUST CUMULUS WILL RESULT, SO NO SHOWER MENTION IS INCLUDED. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NE TONIGHT AND INCREASE AS CAA DEVELOPS. TEMPS
STILL ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT MORE THAN 10 ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT;
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES OVERNIGHT AND
WITH THAT AND WIND, FOG IS NOT EXPECTED, PERHAPS EXCEPTING SOME
OF THE SW MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE THE DRYING IS LEAST EFFECTIVE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
2) NO FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
LOW TEMPERATURES
3) DRY CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY WHILE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
SATURDAY DUE TO COLD AIR DAMMING, HIGHS WILL STILL END UP ~3-6
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. BOTH THE SFC HIGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH
OFF THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS NORTH OF I-85 FOR NOW. CLOUD COVER, RAIN, AND COLD AIR
DAMMING WILL ALL WORK TOGETHER TO LIMIT HIGHS ON SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL END UP ~7-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL END UP ~15 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) RAIN CHANCES LINGER THROUGH LATE MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
ACROSS THE AREA
2) ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
3) DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY ONGOING MONDAY MORNING, LINGERING
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING, AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REBOUND TO ~10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO SW/W'LY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS THE FRONT SCOURS OUT THE
COLD AIR DAMMING. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH OUT OF THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE
LATEST GFS AND CANADIAN SHOW RAIN ARRIVING WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW RAIN ARRIVING UNTIL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SPLIT ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT, CONFIDENCE ON POPS WILL BE LOW FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING ONWARD.
THUS, CAPPED POPS TO CHANCE (50% OR LESS) FOR NOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AREA-WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: COLD FRONT SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION, ALREADY PROMOTING VERY SLIGHT SFC DRYING AND MIXING
WHICH ALLOWED OVERNIGHT DENSE FOG TO HAVE ALREADY LIFTED IN MANY
SPOTS. WIND LIGHT BUT FAVORING WSW AT MOST OBS SITES AT 12Z. CIGS
ARE NO BETTER THAN MVFR, WITH IFR TENDING TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
FOG. DESPITE DRYING, THIS SETUP COULD LEAD TO A "SUNRISE SURPRISE"
WITH RETURN OF IFR TO LIFR CIGS OR EVEN VSBY. THINK MOST IFR WILL
BE GONE BY 14-15Z, WITH PATCHY MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS POSSIBLE UNTIL
SFC WINDS MIX AND TREND NW, PROMOTING DOWNSLOPING. SOME LOW VFR
CUMULUS, POSSIBLY TCU, WILL BREAK OUT ALONG BACKDOOR SFC FRONT
AS IT SETTLES IN THIS AFTN AND EVENING, BUT PRECIP CHANCE TOO LOW
TO MENTION. WINDS THEN BECOME NE AND MAY EVEN SHOW SOME 15-20 KT
GUSTS BY DAYBREAK SAT. THE FRONT SHOULD INDUCE ENOUGH DRYING THAT
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCU AT THAT LEVEL
COULD DEVELOP NEAR KAVL AND THE SC SITES, AND VALLEY FOG NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION IN SW NC.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 11-08
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 2023 39 1976 58 2000 18 1967
1980 1951
KCLT 81 2023 45 1976 64 1888 25 1967
KGSP 82 2023 50 1991 60 1895 23 1903
1915 1976
1971
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-
028-029.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ008>014-
019-101>109.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLIMATE...GSP
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