232
FXUS62 KGSP 082354
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, DOING LITTLE TO CURB
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
MONDAY, RESULTING IN RAIN. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 6:45 PM EST FRIDAY: THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
SAG FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE UPSTATE THIS EVENING, YET THE DRIER
AIR BEHIND IT IS STILL STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA FROM
THE NORTH.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, A PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OF
THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
SUPPORT SFC HIGH PRESSURE GETTING PUSHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRIDGE THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND
BEGIN TO ADVECT DRIER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH, TO THE POINT WHERE
THE USUAL MTN VALLEY FOG SHOULD NOT DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS CHANGE
WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY SLOW, AS LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION. AS WE GET
INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH, WE SHOULD BE FINALLY NOTICING THE AIR MASS
CHANGE AS THE SFC HIGH TRANSITS THE REGION WHERE COLD AIR DAMMING
PARENT HIGHS USUALLY HANG OUT ACROSS UPSTATE NY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT ANY E/SE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET ON SATURDAY EVENING, SO THIS MIGHT BE A MORE WEDGE-LIKE
SCENARIO THAN A TRUE COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO, AND THE HIGH
TEMP FORECAST BEARS THAT OUT WITH VALUES THAT STILL RUN ABOUT A
CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON,
AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 138 PM EDT FRIDAY: BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE PULLING TO OUR EAST, RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS ANEMIC AT FIRST,
BUT SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REINFORCE A SHALLOW CAD
CONFIGURATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA AND BARELY PERMITTING ANY COOLING SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS SOME WARMING ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CAD DETERIORATES. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST,
HOWEVER, THAT HIGHS COULD WIND UP AS MUCH AS A CATEGORY COOLER
MONDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW EFFECTIVELY THE CAD BREAKS DOWN AND HOW
LONG CLOUD COVER PERSISTS INTO THE DAY. CERTAINLY, BY LATER IN THE
DAY MONDAY, WE SHOULD BE MORE SOLIDLY LOCKED INTO A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY. RAIN LOOKS LIKELY WITH THIS, AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
COULD MIX IN...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CAD
SCATTERS OUT AND THE EXACT CONFIGURATION OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT FRIDAY: MULTIPLE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES WILL IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT NEITHER IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS WEATHER. THE FIRST, A COLD FRONT, WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT. QPF RESPONSE IS VARIABLE AT THIS RANGE,
BUT DOESN'T APPEAR IMPACTFUL. THEN, EXPECT DRYING ON MONDAY AS A
FAST-MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. BY WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BE BACK IN AN EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME, THOUGH THE PARENT HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM
THE CAROLINAS THAT IT SHOULD HAVE A BARELY-NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE SECOND ACTIVE
WEATHER FEATURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A SECOND, FAST-MOVING
COLD FRONT EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY, AND SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER SLUG OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
THEN DEPICTS STOUT HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN, AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME MORE SEASONABLY COOL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT BEHIND A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. A FEW TERMINALS, INCLUDING
KGSP, ARE STILL REPORTING BKN VFR CIGS AS SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THESE CIGS SHOULD SCT LATER TONIGHT AS PRO-
FILES CONTINUE TO DRY. WITH DEWPTS DROPPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IS MINIMAL.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT FEW TO SCT VFR CLOUDS ON SAT WITH WINDS PICKING
UP FROM THE NE SAT MORNING AND EVENTUALLY VEERING TO A MORE ELY
DIRECTION LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP FROM THE SE BY
LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 11-08
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 78 2023 39 1976 58 2000 18 1967
1980 1951
KCLT 81 2023 45 1976 64 1888 25 1967
KGSP 82 2023 50 1991 60 1895 23 1903
1915 1976
1971
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JPT/PM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...
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