509
FXUS62 KGSP 090320
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, DOING LITTLE TO CURB
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
MONDAY, RESULTING IN RAIN. DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 9:55 PM EST FRIDAY: WINDS HAVE ALREADY GONE CALM AT THE
MAJORITY OF OUR OBSERVING SITES LATE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION,
DEWPTS REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES
THAT A HANDFUL OF SITES ARE REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH
GREENWOOD REPORTING 1/4 SM AND FOG. GOING FORWARD, I EXPECT
THAT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH
OF I-85 AS DEWPTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DROP OVERNIGHT.
THE DRIER AIR IS JUST TAKING ITS TIME SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH.
ANOTHER CONSEQUENCE OF THIS WILL BE LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT THAT
REMAIN 2 TO 3 CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS OUR FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE, HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER OUR AREA AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD
EARLY SUNDAY. AT THE SFC, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD SE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND ADVECT DRIER
AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST AND WILL CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND TO A
NELY DIRECTION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER WEDGE PATTERN
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD
AREA OF FAIRLY DEEP PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL APPROACH OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
AS THE PERIOD IS ENDING LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. THE LATEST
NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL AFTER SUNSET SAT EVENING,
SO THIS WILL PROBABLY BE A MORE WEDGE-LIKE SCENARIO THAN A TRUE
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. IN ADDITION, SAT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP UNTIL LATE SAT NIGHT.
EVEN WITH THE WEDGE SETTING UP OVER THE AREA ON SAT, TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL LIKELY RUN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS
MOST OF OUR CWA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 138 PM EDT FRIDAY: BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE PULLING TO OUR EAST, RESULTING IN A RETURN
TO EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS ANEMIC AT FIRST,
BUT SHOULD SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WEAK
SOUTHEASTERLY ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL REINFORCE A SHALLOW CAD
CONFIGURATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR MOST OF THE CWA AND BARELY PERMITTING ANY COOLING SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS SOME WARMING ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE 70S MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE PULLS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND THE CAD DETERIORATES. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST,
HOWEVER, THAT HIGHS COULD WIND UP AS MUCH AS A CATEGORY COOLER
MONDAY, DEPENDING ON HOW EFFECTIVELY THE CAD BREAKS DOWN AND HOW
LONG CLOUD COVER PERSISTS INTO THE DAY. CERTAINLY, BY LATER IN THE
DAY MONDAY, WE SHOULD BE MORE SOLIDLY LOCKED INTO A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY. RAIN LOOKS LIKELY WITH THIS, AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
COULD MIX IN...BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CAD
SCATTERS OUT AND THE EXACT CONFIGURATION OF THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT FRIDAY: MULTIPLE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES WILL IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT NEITHER IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS WEATHER. THE FIRST, A COLD FRONT, WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT. QPF RESPONSE IS VARIABLE AT THIS RANGE,
BUT DOESN'T APPEAR IMPACTFUL. THEN, EXPECT DRYING ON MONDAY AS A
FAST-MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. BY WEDNESDAY, WE'LL BE BACK IN AN EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME, THOUGH THE PARENT HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM
THE CAROLINAS THAT IT SHOULD HAVE A BARELY-NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. THE SECOND ACTIVE
WEATHER FEATURE WILL ARRIVE IN THE FORM OF A SECOND, FAST-MOVING
COLD FRONT EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY, AND SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER SLUG OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
THEN DEPICTS STOUT HIGH PRESSURE FILTERING IN, AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME MORE SEASONABLY COOL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT BEHIND A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT. A FEW TERMINALS, INCLUDING
KGSP, ARE STILL REPORTING BKN VFR CIGS AS SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THESE CIGS SHOULD SCT LATER TONIGHT AS PRO-
FILES CONTINUE TO DRY. WITH DEWPTS DROPPING OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IS MINIMAL.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT FEW TO SCT VFR CLOUDS ON SAT WITH WINDS PICKING
UP FROM THE NE SAT MORNING AND EVENTUALLY VEERING TO A MORE ELY
DIRECTION LATER IN THE DAY/EVENING. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP FROM THE SE BY
LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK: ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEDGE PATTERN DEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...JPT
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