532
FXUS62 KGSP 091804
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
104 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY BEFORE A STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THIS THE WEEKEND, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW NORMAL,
BEFORE HIGHS TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT INCREASES RAIN CHANCES AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1243 PM SATURDAY: FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS
SOME LINGERING STRATOCU UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION OVER
NORTHEAST GA AND THE UPSTATE, AND THIS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS SOME WEAK RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT BEGINS. MEANWHILE, SOME THIN CIRRUS WAS STREAMING IN FROM
THE WNW. SHOULD BE DRY INTO THE EVENING. TEMPS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE,
SO NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY TODAY, SUPPORTED BY A MODERATELY STRONG
UPPER RIDGE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DUE TO A COMBO OF CLOUD COVER
AND A FRESHLY ARRIVED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS; THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, STILL A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WARM UPGLIDE WILL MOISTEN TONIGHT AND STRATUS OR STRATOCU
WILL THICKEN OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA, BUT CHANCE OF POP
STILL WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS, GIVEN PROXIMITY TO FRONT
AND WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BEST ALOFT; EVEN THEN CHANCE IS BELOW
30%. MINS WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER AS WELL, BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH CLOUD COVER, AND WITH HYBRID CAD STILL NOT
LOOKING PARTICULARLY LIKELY TO DEVELOP GIVEN LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD AIR DAMMING WILL ALLOW FOR BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY
2) A COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
3) ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURN MONDAY AS COLD AIR DAMMING ERODES
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT, HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL END UP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL END UP ~15 DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN LIMITING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY,
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AROUND AND GRADUALLY SCOURING OUT COLD AIR
DAMMING. HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR DAMMING ERODES ON MONDAY WILL BE
THE MAIN QUESTION. IF IT ERODES PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT. HOWEVER, REMOVED THUNDER
CHANCES FOR NOW AS COLD AIR DAMMING USUALLY ERODES SLOWER THAN WHAT
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS. HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD REBOUND TO
~10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT COULD BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT IF THE WEDGE
LINGERS THROUGH PEAK HEATING. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. LOWS WILL REMAIN ~15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT DESPITE GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUD
COVER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK
3) A COLD FRONT INCREASES RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY, LINGERING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY, DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL END UP SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO DESPITE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FONT, KEEPING LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER SO CAPPED POPS TO CHANCE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON FRIDAY LEADING TO DRIER WEATHER.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
LOWS REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
LONG TERM.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
DRY, SO OTHER THAN SOME HIGH-BASED STRATOCU, NOT MUCH WILL BE
HAPPENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR, WITH A NE WIND AT THE
SFC, WELL INTO THE EVENING. TOWARD DAYBREAK, THAT WILL CHANGE
AS MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE S AND SE. LOW CEILINGS AND LIGHT
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FIRST ALONG/NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT
AFTER MIDNIGHT, EVENTUALLY EXPANDING TO ENCOMPASS THE UPSTATE
TERMINALS AND KAVL. RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THOSE LOCATIONS
AFTER DAYBREAK, BEGINNING MAINLY AS MVFR CEILINGS. AS THE MOIST
UPGLIDE FLOW FROM THE SOUTH PERSISTS, THE PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER
MVFR, AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT KCLT.
OUTLOOK: A WEDGE REGIME WILL PERSIST UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS AND PRECIP ARE
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DRY AND MOSTLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED
TUE-WED.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PM
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