865
FXUS62 KGSP 110147
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
847 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
SYNOPSIS
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL CONTINUE TODAY, MAINTAINING CLOUDY CONDITIONS,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL RAMP UP RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
TOMORROW. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 835 PM SUNDAY: AS MOIST UPGLIDE CONTINUES, AREAS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR THIS EVENING FROM THE ESCARPMENT
EAST. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT,
RESULTING IN A LULL IN PRECIP. BUT CONTINUED MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS MAY PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS THRU THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO, SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL TN
VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE NC MOUNTAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THE SMOKIES, BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS
EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL BASICALLY HOVER IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
THE MOIST UPGLIDE ALONG WITH THE BEST DPVA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZING RIGHT AROUND NOW, AFTER WHICH THAT FORCING MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE ISENTROPIC LIFT BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OVER ONTARIO WILL PUSH A SFC FRONT TOWARD THE MTNS FROM
THE WEST. THE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD VEER MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND KEEP WEAK WARM ADVECTION IN PLACE, WHICH ALONG
WITH THICK CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY
TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE MTNS BY DAYBREAK. AS THE FRONT
GETS PUSHED OVER THE MTNS AND THEN OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT MONDAY
MORNING, THE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PRECIP COVERAGE
WILL ALSO DIMINISH. SO, APART FROM SOME LIKELY ALONG THE TN BORDER
EARLY ON, THE WEAKENING KEEPS PROBS IN THE CHANCE RANGE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THE GUIDANCE MANAGES TO DEVELOP SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
MAINLY S/E OF I-85 IN THE MORNING, SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT IN GENERAL THE SITUATION DOESN'T LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS. THE BETTER FORCING IS GONE BY THE
TIME INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE THE
BOUNDARY MIGHT ALSO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA. TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE FLOW CAN VEER AND BECOME
MORE DOWNSLOPE, CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT IN
TIME. IF THAT HAPPENS, WE WOULD SEE A FAIRLY NICE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING 15 DEGREES OR MORE COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1237 PM EDT SUNDAY: BY MONDAY EVENING, THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION
WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA, IF NOT
ENTIRELY EAST OF THE AREA, ALLOWING A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER IN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL ZONES, EXCEPT SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LINGERING UPSLOPE MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. THE ASSOCIATED SLUG OF POSTFRONTAL CAA
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOW
50S OR UPPER 40S, AND ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 60S ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY NIGHT, AS ANY LINGERING POSTFRONTAL WIND
SUBSIDES, CONDITIONS SHOULD SET UP FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIVE COOLING,
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOW 40S OR EVEN UPPER 30S OUTSIDE
THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO EASTERLY LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...REMAINING THAT
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 850MB WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH, AND MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LOOKS TO SET UP ANOTHER CLASSICAL
CAD CONFIGURATION, SUCH THAT THERE'S A <25% CHANCE THAT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S WEDNESDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN UPSTATE, WHICH
COULD SEE 60 DEGREES OR SO.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1253 PM EDT SUNDAY: THURSDAY REMAINS MURKIER. THE ADVANCE OF
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE DEPICTED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS,
WHICH IN THEORY SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT THE RESIDUAL WEDGE FROM THE
BOTTOM UP. BUT, MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY OVERAGGRESSIVE IN SCATTERING
OUT WEDGES. EITHER WAY, THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT THURSDAY EVENING
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THE WEDGE...GIVING US ANOTHER SLUG OF CAA LASTING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WILDLY PAST THIS POINT. THERE'S A
ROUGH CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY, WHILE A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. SOME
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT UP THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS TAKE THE TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SO, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE EVOLUTION
OF THINGS PAST FRIDAY OR SO.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING WILL CONTINUE THRU
TONIGHT, RESULTING MAINLY WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CIGS THRU
MID-MORNING MONDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
PIEDMONT, SHOULD SHIFT EAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, BUT LINGERING DZ
WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
IN FROM THE NORTH AND HELP SCOUR OUT THE WEDGE, BUT CIGS WILL TAKE
A WHILE TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR, POSSIBLY INTO EARLY AFTN FOR THE
UPSTATE SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, FAVORING A N/NE
TONIGHT, THEN TOGGLE TO SW MONDAY MORNING, PICKING UP TO 6-8 KT
IN THE AFTN. AT KAVL WINDS WILL FAVOR A LIGHT SSE DIRECTION DUE
TO THE CAD, THEN SHIFT TO NNW BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND MOSTLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TUE-WED. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY, FOLLOWED
BY DRYING FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ARK
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