349
FXUS62 KGSP 110824
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 AM EST MON NOV 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES BACK DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DESPITE THE FRONT, HIGHS
WILL REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DAMMING
ERODES. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INCREASES RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ARRIVE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM: CAD APPEARS TO BE HANGING ON BY A THREAD ACROSS THE
CWA, BUT ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE JUST YET. SFC COLD FRONT BISECTS
KY/TN AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE THRU THE DAY, BUT NOT LIKELY ACTUALLY
CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. UPPER
TROUGH NEAR THE FRONT AND OVER THE WEDGE HAS ALLOWED SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP, THE GREATEST AMOUNT CURRENTLY BEING IN
A PLUME AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE
RESULTING SHOWERS NOW NEAR THE TN BORDER WILL TRACK INTO THE NC
MOUNTAINS BEFORE DAWN, BUT THAT INSTABILITY IS PROGGED MOSTLY TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST. A FEW LIGHT RETURNS HAVE BEEN SEEN FROM TIME
TO TIME WITHIN THE CWA, WHERE WEAK UPGLIDE CONTINUES. SHORT-TERM
PROGS STILL SHOW A SECONDARY PLUME OF WAA ON OUR EASTERN PERIPHERY
BY DAYBREAK AND LINGERING THROUGH MID-MORNING. AS A RESULT OF
THESE FINDINGS, HAVE KEPT AT LEAST A SLIGHT-CHANCE POP IN ALL
OF THE CWA UNTIL DAYBREAK, WITH BETTER CHANCES ON OUR WESTERN
AND EASTERN FRINGES. LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTER DAWN,
WITH CLOUD BASES LIKELY LOWERING GRADUALLY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AND AN SPS IS BEING ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT.
FLOW OVER THE WEDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING WESTERLY,
THEN SLIGHTLY NW AFTER DAWN, BUT RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SPEEDS
IMPLY DOWNSLOPE WON'T BE ALL THAT EFFECTIVE IN SCOURING OUT
THE WEDGE. INSOLATION ONTO THE STRATUS DECK MAY BE LIMITED BY
CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVECTION, SO CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT. UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR THE TN
BORDER THRU THE DAY, ALONG WITH A 20-30% POP. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED, AND MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
REBOUND INTO THE MID 70S IN MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOME CAMS DEPICT
SBCAPE DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF
INHIBITION. SOME CUMULUS LIKELY WILL BREAK OUT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA, BUT RESULTANT CHANCE OF PRECIP CURRENTLY LOOKS
BELOW SLIGHT-CHANCE; THE CAPE PROFILES THAT LOOK VIABLE ARE SKINNY
AND UPDRAFTS LIKELY WON'T OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. DEWPOINTS
MAY BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON; DRYING MAY NOT
BE FAST ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, BUT
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE SO MIXING SHOULD HELP, AND AS SUCH NO FOG
IS BEING INCLUDED AT THAT TIME. MINS STILL LOOK 7-10 ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES
2) HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY, DROPPING BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
3) CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY,
WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
(~4-8 DEGREES) ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ENDING UP CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WITH CAA FILTERING INTO THE REGION AS THE HIGH LIFTS
NE, LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE MID 30S TO MID 40S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER,
LOWS SHOULD STILL END UP NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO NE'LY SFC
WINDS, WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO DROP ~3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BOTH GRADUALLY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH
LOWER POPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND ~3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO
BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AROUND
2) DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS, HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE LATE THURSDAY AS CAA FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING, CLOUD COVER, AND RAIN ALL EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING, HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND
SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. DESPITE GRADUALLY
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS
WILL END UP A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO RETURN. HIGHS WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ENDING UP A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL REMAIN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: TRICKY TAFS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY, AS COLD
AIR DAMMING WEDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. CIGS ARE ALREADY MOSTLY
LIFR, BUT SOME BREAKS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT LEAST BRIEFLY, WHERE
LIGHT SHRA DEVELOP BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN. EXCEPTING THAT POSSIBILITY,
CIGS SHOULD TREND LOWER IN THAT TIMEFRAME. WINDS MOSTLY WILL FAVOR
SW BUT WILL EXHIBIT VARIABILITY EARLY ON. COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THE AREA FROM NW TO SE TODAY; HIGHER CLOUD DECKS ALONG/AHEAD OF
IT WOULD APPEAR TO SHELTER THE STRATUS LAYER, BUT AS THOSE ADVECT
OUT AND AS WINDS VEER TO DOWNSLOPE OVER THE WEDGE, THE RESTRICTIVE
CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT IFR TO LOW MVFR LEVEL
MAY LINGER INTO AFTERNOON IN SOME PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AND SHIFT TO NW AT KAVL BY MIDDAY, AND TO WNW AT THE OTHER
SITES BY AROUND SUNSET. NO RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH
FEW-SCT CLOUDS BELOW 030 MAY BE SEEN AT KAVL DUE TO UPSLOPE.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND MOSTLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TUE-WED. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY, FOLLOWED
BY DRYING FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page