069
FXUS62 KGSP 111146
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 AM EST MON NOV 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES BACK DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DESPITE THE FRONT, HIGHS
WILL REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DAMMING
ERODES. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INCREASES RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ARRIVE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 640 AM: CAD APPEARS TO BE HANGING ON BY A THREAD ACROSS THE
CWA, BUT ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE JUST YET. SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
HAVE REACHED THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IN KY/TN AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SE THRU THE DAY, BUT PROBABLY WON'T CROSS THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
VIA A COMBINATION OF WEAK DPVA AND SLIGHT MUCAPE ABOVE WEDGE
INVERSION; THESE MOSTLY WILL AFFECT THE NC MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT
THRU MID-MORNING. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS SEEN ON SFC OBS AND SPS
FOR PARTS OF WNC AND NORTHEAST GA REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
AM. FLOW OVER THE WEDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING WESTERLY,
BUT RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SPEEDS IMPLY DOWNSLOPE WON'T BE ALL THAT
EFFECTIVE IN SCOURING OUT THE WEDGE. INSOLATION ONTO THE STRATUS
DECK WILL BE THE MAIN DISSIPATION MECHANISM, WORKING ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MIDDAY. UPSLOPE CLOUD COVER
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ALONG THE TN BORDER THRU THE DAY, ALONG WITH
A 20-30% POP. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED,
AND MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 70S IN
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOME CAMS DEPICT SBCAPE DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF INHIBITION. SOME CUMULUS
LIKELY WILL BREAK OUT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT
RESULTANT CHANCE OF PRECIP CURRENTLY LOOKS BELOW SLIGHT-CHANCE;
THE CAPE PROFILES THAT LOOK VIABLE ARE SKINNY AND UPDRAFTS LIKELY
WON'T OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. DEWPOINTS MAY BEGIN TO MIX
OUT FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON; DRYING MAY NOT BE FAST ENOUGH
TO COMPLETELY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SO MIXING SHOULD HELP, AND AS SUCH NO FOG IS BEING
INCLUDED AT THAT TIME. MINS STILL LOOK 7-10 ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES
2) HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY, DROPPING BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
3) CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY,
WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
(~4-8 DEGREES) ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ENDING UP CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WITH CAA FILTERING INTO THE REGION AS THE HIGH LIFTS
NE, LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE MID 30S TO MID 40S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER,
LOWS SHOULD STILL END UP NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO NE'LY SFC
WINDS, WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO DROP ~3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BOTH GRADUALLY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH
LOWER POPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND ~3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO
BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AROUND
2) DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS, HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE LATE THURSDAY AS CAA FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING, CLOUD COVER, AND RAIN ALL EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING, HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND
SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. DESPITE GRADUALLY
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS
WILL END UP A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO RETURN. HIGHS WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ENDING UP A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL REMAIN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: TRICKY TAFS THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY, AS
COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN. CIGS ARE MOSTLY LIFR
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENTS TO IFR OR EVEN
MVFR, MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT PRECIP GENERATED BY ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THUNDER NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT FORWARD AND
PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT, BUT TEMPOS HANDLE CHANCE OF IMPROVING
CATEGORY. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SLOWLYVEERING BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH THAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW ISN'T GOING TO BE VERY EFFECTIVE
AT SCOURING THE WEDGE. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DRYING ARE NOT
LIKELY TO PASS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. INSOLATION ONTO THE
STRATUS LAYER IS BEST HOPE FOR IMPROVEMENT. GIVEN THE EARLY MORNING
VARIABILITY, THINK LAMP TIMING MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO PESSIMISTIC,
ALTHOUGH STILL GAVE MORE WEIGHT TO IT THAN TO DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE. FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT IFR TO LOW MVFR LEVEL MAY LINGER INTO
AFTERNOON IN SOME PIEDMONT LOCATIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED
TO NW AT KAVL AND WILL REMAIN THERE THRU TUE MORNING; OTHER SITES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NW QUADRANT UNTIL THE END OF THE
DAY. VFR MOST LIKELY TONIGHT WITH WIND CONTINUING AND SOME DRYING,
BUT IN OUTLYING AREAS WHERE WINDS ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE, RADIATION
FOG IS A POSSIBILITY.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND MOSTLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TUE-WED. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY, FOLLOWED
BY DRYING FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
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