861
FXUS62 KGSP 111744
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1244 PM EST MON NOV 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES BACK DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DESPITE THE FRONT, HIGHS
WILL REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR DAMMING
ERODES. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INCREASES RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL HIGHS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BEFORE ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS ARRIVE AGAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1241 PM MONDAY: FINALLY SEEING SOME WHOLESALE MIXING OUT OF
THE LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK OVER THE UPSTATE/WESTERN PIEDMONT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AND ALL TRACES OF IT SHOULD BE WIPED OUT BY 2 PM
AT THE LATEST. MEANWHILE, THE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO DWINDLE
OVER THE MTNS AS WELL, WITH ONLY A FEW WAVE CLOUDS APPEARING
THAT SHOULD PROBABLY HANG ON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED ENTIRELY FROM THE MTNS NOW THAT DRY
AIR WAS FILTERING IN. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE,
BUT IT IS EARLY ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD STILL GET CLOSE TO FCST
HIGHS. VERY SOON IT WILL FEEL LIKE AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT DAY.
OTHERWISE...SFC COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE REACHED THE GREAT
VALLEY IN TN AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THRU THE DAY,
BUT PROBABLY WON'T CROSS THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED,
AND MAX TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MID 70S IN
MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS. SOME CAMS DEPICT SBCAPE DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH VARYING DEGREES OF INHIBITION. SOME CUMULUS
LIKELY WILL BREAK OUT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT
RESULTANT CHANCE OF PRECIP CURRENTLY LOOKS BELOW SLIGHT-CHANCE;
THE CAPE PROFILES THAT LOOK VIABLE ARE SKINNY AND UPDRAFTS LIKELY
WON'T OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. DEWPOINTS MAY BEGIN TO MIX
OUT FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON; DRYING MAY NOT BE FAST ENOUGH
TO COMPLETELY PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, BUT LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SO MIXING SHOULD HELP, AND AS SUCH NO FOG IS BEING
INCLUDED AT THAT TIME. MINS STILL LOOK 7-10 ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES
2) HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY, DROPPING BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY
3) CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY,
WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS
(~4-8 DEGREES) ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ENDING UP CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WITH CAA FILTERING INTO THE REGION AS THE HIGH LIFTS
NE, LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE MID 30S TO MID 40S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER,
LOWS SHOULD STILL END UP NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
COLD AIR DAMMING WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO NE'LY SFC
WINDS, WHICH WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO DROP ~3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BOTH GRADUALLY
INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH
LOWER POPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO TUESDAY NIGHT, AND ~3-5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO THANKS TO
BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AROUND
2) DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND
3) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS, HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE LATE THURSDAY AS CAA FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING, CLOUD COVER, AND RAIN ALL EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH
PEAK DAYTIME HEATING, HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND
SHOULD ONLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. DESPITE GRADUALLY
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS
WILL END UP A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO RETURN. HIGHS WILL REBOUND
INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ENDING UP A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WILL REMAIN A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A PESKY IFR LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO HANG ON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UPSTATE
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID
MIXING AND EROSION OF THE CLOUDS. THINK ALL BUT KCLT WILL GO VFR
IN SHORT ORDER, SO ONLY KCLT GETS THE RESTRICTION, AND ONLY FOR
THE FIRST HOUR. AFTER 19Z, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WIND HAS COME AROUND TO WSW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. MIGHT GET A GUST OR
TWO. OTHERWISE, THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION AROUND NIGHTFALL
AND THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO WNW OR NW AT THAT TIME. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
FOG AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO N AND NE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND MOSTLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT-WED. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY DRYING FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PM
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