177
FXUS62 KGSP 111922
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
222 PM EST MON NOV 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
USHERING IN DRIER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 141 PM MONDAY: THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE OLD LOW STRATUS CLOUD
DECK ARE FINALLY IN THE PROCESS OF MIXING OUT OVER THE SRN HALF
OF METRO CHARLOTTE AND THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SC. ALL TRACES OF
IT SHOULD BE WIPED OUT BY 3 PM AT THE LATEST. MEANWHILE, THE CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO DWINDLE OVER THE MTNS AS WELL, WITH ONLY A FEW
WAVE CLOUDS APPEARING THAT SHOULD PROBABLY HANG ON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. TEMPS ARE RUNNING A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE, BUT IT IS EARLY
ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD STILL GET CLOSE TO FCST HIGHS. FINALLY, SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE MTNS AND SOME THICKER
CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER NORTHEAST GA. CAN'T RULE OUT A SMALL ISOLATED
SHOWER, BUT THEY WILL BE FEW IN NUMBER IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL.
ONCE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING,
THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS WE STAY UNDER
A FLAT WNW FLOW ALOFT AND A MID/UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE
UPPER MS RIVER BASIN, ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, TO EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SFC HIGH TO
BUILD DOWN ACROSS OUR REGION, PUSHING DRY AIR IN OVERNIGHT THAT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL KEEP THE MTN VALLEY FOG AT BAY. SKY WILL CLEAR
OUT, BUT WIND SHOULD STAY LIGHT N OR NE, KEEPING THE LOW TEMP 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE AUTUMN DAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH LOTS OF SUN AND TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1235 PM EST MONDAY: Z500 RIDGING WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE DRIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL
START OUT NORTHEASTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
AND MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN A SHALLOW
COLD-AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WARMER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW. IT WON'T BE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN LOW-
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS PICKING UP STEAM, THAT A STREAM OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ATOP THE WEDGE...FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AMID VERY DREARY CONDITIONS.
IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SLOW ON THURSDAY. ERODING A CAD WEDGE IS
TYPICALLY A SLOW PROCESS...OFTEN LASTING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON OR
LATER...ESPECIALLY IN THESE HYBRID SITUATIONS WHERE THERE'S SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT PAIRED WITH ONGOING RAINFALL. HAVING SAID THAT, THERE ARE
HINTS FROM MANY ENSEMBLE SOURCES - ESPECIALLY THE ECE - THAT SOME
DPVA WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD AID IN BREAKING US OUT
OF THE CLOUDINESS FASTER THAN IS TYPICAL ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY, BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING THE TROUGH'S SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL BE ENCROACHING ON OUR WESTERN ZONES...SPELLING DOOM
FOR ANY RESIDUAL WEDGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1256 PM EST MONDAY: AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY
REMAINING COLD WEDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
PRODUCE A MODEST BUT LONG-LIVED SLUG OF CAA THAT SHOULD PERSIST WELL
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL CIRCULATION, AND BUILDING HEIGHTS PAIRED WITH CLEARER SKIES
WILL COUNTERACT THE EFFECTS OF THE CAA, SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID-60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A WEAK PROTRUSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...PERMITTING SOME
MOISTURE TO MAKE TRACKS OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS,
AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK RIPPLES OF DPVA. BUT, MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
TIME POINTS TO TOO LITTLE OVERLAP BETWEEN MOISTURE AND FORCING TO
WARRANT ANY POPS THROUGH THE END OF D7. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND...LANDING IN THE LOW 70S AGAIN BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A PESKY IFR LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK
CONTINUES TO HANG ON ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UPSTATE
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC, BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID
MIXING AND EROSION OF THE CLOUDS. THINK ALL BUT KCLT WILL GO VFR
IN SHORT ORDER, SO ONLY KCLT GETS THE RESTRICTION, AND ONLY FOR
THE FIRST HOUR. AFTER 19Z, ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE VFR FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WIND HAS COME AROUND TO WSW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS. MIGHT GET A GUST OR
TWO. OTHERWISE, THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION AROUND NIGHTFALL
AND THE WIND WILL COME AROUND TO WNW OR NW AT THAT TIME. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
FOG AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER TO N AND NE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND MOSTLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT-WED. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY DRYING FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...PM
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