212
FXUS62 KGSP 112348
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EST MON NOV 11 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
USHERING IN DRIER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND BEYOND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 550 PM MONDAY: A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND IS NOW CROSSING THE FOOTHILLS TOWARD THE I-85
CORRIDOR. SOME PATCHY CU LINGERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
BUT OVERALL, SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET,
THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES ARE BASICALLY OVER FOR THE DAY. MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE SKY AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST AND ALSO THE
HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPT GRIDS THRU THIS EVENING TO LINE UP WITH
THE TRENDS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG SOUTH OF
CHARLOTTE LATER THIS EVENING, AS THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO PUSH
THRU THAT AREA AND DRY THINGS OUT.
OTHERWISE...ONCE A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING, THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS WE
STAY UNDER A FLAT WNW FLOW ALOFT AND A MID/UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM
THE UPPER MS RIVER BASIN, ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, TO EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SFC HIGH TO
BUILD DOWN ACROSS OUR REGION, PUSHING DRY AIR IN OVERNIGHT THAT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL KEEP THE MTN VALLEY FOG AT BAY. SKY WILL CLEAR
OUT, BUT WIND SHOULD STAY LIGHT N OR NE, KEEPING THE LOW TEMP 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE AUTUMN DAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH LOTS OF SUN AND TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1235 PM EST MONDAY: Z500 RIDGING WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE DRIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL
START OUT NORTHEASTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
AND MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN A SHALLOW
COLD-AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WARMER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW. IT WON'T BE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN LOW-
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS PICKING UP STEAM, THAT A STREAM OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ATOP THE WEDGE...FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AMID VERY DREARY CONDITIONS.
IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SLOW ON THURSDAY. ERODING A CAD WEDGE IS
TYPICALLY A SLOW PROCESS...OFTEN LASTING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON OR
LATER...ESPECIALLY IN THESE HYBRID SITUATIONS WHERE THERE'S SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT PAIRED WITH ONGOING RAINFALL. HAVING SAID THAT, THERE ARE
HINTS FROM MANY ENSEMBLE SOURCES - ESPECIALLY THE ECE - THAT SOME
DPVA WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD AID IN BREAKING US OUT
OF THE CLOUDINESS FASTER THAN IS TYPICAL ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY, BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING THE TROUGH'S SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL BE ENCROACHING ON OUR WESTERN ZONES...SPELLING DOOM
FOR ANY RESIDUAL WEDGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1256 PM EST MONDAY: AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY
REMAINING COLD WEDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
PRODUCE A MODEST BUT LONG-LIVED SLUG OF CAA THAT SHOULD PERSIST WELL
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL CIRCULATION, AND BUILDING HEIGHTS PAIRED WITH CLEARER SKIES
WILL COUNTERACT THE EFFECTS OF THE CAA, SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID-60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A WEAK PROTRUSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...PERMITTING SOME
MOISTURE TO MAKE TRACKS OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS,
AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK RIPPLES OF DPVA. BUT, MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
TIME POINTS TO TOO LITTLE OVERLAP BETWEEN MOISTURE AND FORCING TO
WARRANT ANY POPS THROUGH THE END OF D7. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND...LANDING IN THE LOW 70S AGAIN BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE PIEDMONT
TAF SITES THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME PATCHY
FOG FORMING AROUND CLT BY AROUND 03Z. THERE SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
50/50 CHANCE OF THIS IMPACTING CLT, AS IT MAY FORM MORE TO THE
SOUTH. WILL INTRODUCE A TEMPO FOR A FEW HOURS LATE EVENING. DRY
AIR SHOULD THEN WIN OUT AND BRING ALL SITES TO VFR FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, OVERNIGHT, THEN PICKING UP
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE N OR NE, GENERALLY STAYING UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND MOSTLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED TUE NIGHT-WED. A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ARK
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