250
FXUS62 KGSP 120536
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1236 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, USHERING IN DRIER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING BACK DRY WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST TUESDAY: AN SPS FOR PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG
WAS ISSUED ACROSS THE EASTERN SC UPSTATE AND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AND
SURROUNDING AREAS AS VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING DOWN TO A QUARTER
MILE AT TIMES. THE SPS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 AM EST. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER
INTO THE AREAS THAT ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE
FOG. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE FOG TO LIFT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS NOW
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TO LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK.
THUS, WILL CONTINUE MONITOR THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER
THIS MORNING IF THE FOG REMAINS IN PLACE. DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH DAYBREAK, LOWS WILL END UP ~5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS WE STAY UNDER A
FLAT WNW FLOW ALOFT AND A MID/UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE UPPER MS
RIVER BASIN, ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, TO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE AUTUMN DAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LOTS OF SUN AND TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1235 PM EST MONDAY: Z500 RIDGING WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE DRIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WINDS WILL
START OUT NORTHEASTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY, AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
AND MORE EASTERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN A SHALLOW
COLD-AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S FOR VIRTUALLY THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WARMER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...BUT FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW. IT WON'T BE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHEN LOW-
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT STARTS PICKING UP STEAM, THAT A STREAM OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ATOP THE WEDGE...FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IT. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AMID VERY DREARY CONDITIONS.
IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SLOW ON THURSDAY. ERODING A CAD WEDGE IS
TYPICALLY A SLOW PROCESS...OFTEN LASTING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON OR
LATER...ESPECIALLY IN THESE HYBRID SITUATIONS WHERE THERE'S SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT PAIRED WITH ONGOING RAINFALL. HAVING SAID THAT, THERE ARE
HINTS FROM MANY ENSEMBLE SOURCES - ESPECIALLY THE ECE - THAT SOME
DPVA WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH...AND THIS COULD AID IN BREAKING US OUT
OF THE CLOUDINESS FASTER THAN IS TYPICAL ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY, BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING THE TROUGH'S SURFACE
REFLECTION WILL BE ENCROACHING ON OUR WESTERN ZONES...SPELLING DOOM
FOR ANY RESIDUAL WEDGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1256 PM EST MONDAY: AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL SCOUR OUT ANY
REMAINING COLD WEDGE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
PRODUCE A MODEST BUT LONG-LIVED SLUG OF CAA THAT SHOULD PERSIST WELL
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONTAL CIRCULATION, AND BUILDING HEIGHTS PAIRED WITH CLEARER SKIES
WILL COUNTERACT THE EFFECTS OF THE CAA, SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID-60S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A WEAK PROTRUSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST LOOKS
TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...PERMITTING SOME
MOISTURE TO MAKE TRACKS OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS,
AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK RIPPLES OF DPVA. BUT, MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS
TIME POINTS TO TOO LITTLE OVERLAP BETWEEN MOISTURE AND FORCING TO
WARRANT ANY POPS THROUGH THE END OF D7. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND...LANDING IN THE LOW 70S AGAIN BY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOP AT
KCLT AND KAND THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT LEAST, BUT COULD EVEN LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE
ON FOG LIFTING PRIOR TO DAYBREAK REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW,
HAVE TEMPOS THROUGH 09Z-10Z AT BOTH TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
FOG. ELSEWHERE, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE SO FOG HAS NOT
DEVELOPED (AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH DAYBREAK). VFR IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
MORNING FOG THANKS TO DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. UPPER CIRRUS
SHOULD THICKEN IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS, LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE BEFORE THINNING OUT AGAIN. WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
START OUT NW OR CALM EARLY THIS MORNING, TURNING NE BY MID-MORNING.
WINDS AT KAVL WILL REMAIN N/NW'LY THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY TURNING S'LY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND MOSTLY VFR WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BACK TO
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AR/MPR
NEAR TERM...AR/ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AR
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