382
FXUS62 KGSP 141927
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
RAIN MAY RETURN TO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY..
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 220 PM EST THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING, AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. NWLY 850 MB
FLOW WILL RAMP UP, WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS
ALONG THE TN BORDER TONIGHT, WITH TEMPS LIKELY TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING
BUT RAIN. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MIXED SIGNALS
ON HOW MUCH THE CAA WILL SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND LINGERING
WEDGE. IT SEEMS THERE WILL BE SOME BREAK UP OF THE CLOUD COVER,
BUT WITH THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL AIR STILL RATHER MOIST, ANY
DECOUPLING OF WINDS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
FORMING LATE THIS EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT AS IT REACHES
THE OUTER BANKS, AND THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT UP A
BIT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SO WITH ALL THAT SAID, HAVE SOME PATCHY
FOG IN THE FCST ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT, BUT STILL THINK DENSE
FOG IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CAA AND MIXING. TEMPS WILL DROP
ONLY A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT, RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS.
DRY AIR AND CAA SHOULD SCOUR OUT ANY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG BY
LATE MORNING. THEN A STRATOCU FIELD WILL LIKELY FORM WITHIN SOME
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER
BANKS. A FEW NW FLOW UPSLOPE SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTN NEAR
THE TN BORDER, BUT OTHERWISE, FRIDAY LOOKS DRY. TEMPS WILL REBOUND
NICELY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS,
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BUT WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 145 PM THU: RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY LINGERING NW FLOW RAIN SHOWERS WILL END BY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. NW FLOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN THE USUAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY EARLY SATURDAY.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, FRIDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING
SATURDAY. WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES, ALONG WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES, A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.
LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. HIGHS RANGE
FROM NEAR TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY RISING TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM THU: A SHORT WAVE TOPS THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEVER MAKES IT THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY WITH SHORT
WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS OUR AREA. THE ECMWF IS A
LITTLE SLOWER AND NOT AS FAR EAST BUT DOES BRING SHORT WAVES INTO
THE AREA BY THURSDAY. DESPITE THE SLOWER UPPER FEATURE MOVEMENT OF
THE ECMWF, IT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING IN MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. THE GFS IS SLOWER
LESS AGGRESSIVE, BUT IT HAS SOME PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY AND BOTH DO
FOR THURSDAY. BOTH OF THESE AND THE CANADIAN AGREE THAT ANY REMNANT
LOW FROM SARA WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, AND ANY SIGNIFICANTLY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN BRING IN SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR FOR THURSDAY BUT THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MODEL BLEND. THIS MEANS
A DRY FORECAST UNTIL LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THURSDAY THEN THE FALL TO NEAR NORMAL. LOWS RISE
STEADILY TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: RAIN IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF TO THE
WEST, AND SHOULD END AT ALL SITES BY AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. CIGS
LOOK TO STABILIZE IN THE LIFR TO IFR RANGE UNTIL A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THRU THIS EVENING. THIS WILL HELP CLEAR OUT A LOT OF THE
CLOUD COVER, BUT MAY ALLOW FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO QUICKLY FORM
LATE EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THE EXTENT
OF THE LIFR CIGS, BUT COULD BE ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT SITES
THRU DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SO WILL TREND TOWARD SOME SCT-BKN 400 FT
CIGS WITH THE 18Z TAFS. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD SCATTER OUT
FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS A DRY NW FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND
THE FRONT. WIND WILL TOGGLE TO NNW TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND
8-10 KT. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT KAVL STARTING BEFORE DAYBREAK, GUSTS
SHOULD BE LIMITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A STRATOCU DECK AROUND
3500-5000 FT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NC TAF
SITES, GENERALLY SCATTERED, BUT MAY PRODUCE A CIG BY MID-AFTN.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS BACK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK
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