380
FXUS62 KGSP 180013
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
713 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 6:55 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
2) DENSE FOG RETURNS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING
3) A COLD FRONT INCREASES RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS,
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT
AS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ALONG WITH LINGERING LOW-LVL
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG, MAINLY EAST
OF THE MTNS, OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THUS, ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE ~20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO BOTH THE WARM FRONT AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES, MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. CAMS DEPICT THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GRADUALLY FALLING APART AS IT PUSHES EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUS, THE HIGHEST POPS (~60%-80%) ARE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WITH POPS CAPPED TO ~35%
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CAMS ARE NOT
IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE ONSET OF RAIN TOMORROW. THE 12Z HRRR
SHOWS THE RAIN PUSHING ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER ~20Z WEDNESDAY WHILE
THE NAMNEST DOES NOT SHOW RAIN PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL
AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH CAMS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
WEDNESDAY, OPTED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER. DID THIS FOR TWO
REASONS: 1) THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING AND
2) CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL NOT EVEN BE MUCH RAIN TO
SPEAK OF EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, LET ALONG THUNDER. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, ENDING UP ~15-17
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUD
COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
RETURN WITH THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM EST TUESDAY: THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE
NEAR TERM MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
END DURING THE EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES MOVES INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A WEAKENING CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR NW FLOW SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
USUAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RIGHT NOW, THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOISTURE
FLUX OR FORCING, SO SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, DROPPING TO
NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEN
DROPPING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY BUT
REMAINING NEARLY STEADY ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 205 PM EST TUESDAY: ANY NW FLOW SNOW ENDS BY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORT
WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY KEEPING LOW H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA.
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION SUNDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS EACH
DAY. HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY DROP TO 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY, REMAIN NEARLY STEADY MONDAY, THEN RISE
BACK TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. LOWS DROP INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: STILL EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AS SUCH, I HAVE IFR TO LIFR CIGS
AND VISBY AT MOST TERMINALS. I HAVE VLIFR VISBY AT KHKY AND KAND AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHEST THAT THEY WILL SEE DENSE FOG. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE/LIFT BY ROUGHLY 16Z AT MOST TERMINALS. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AND MOVE THRU THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND THEN PICK
UP FROM THE SW BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER THRU WED NIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURS INTO THE WEEKEND AS DRY HIGH PRE-
SSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. I CANNOT NOT RULE OUT SOME PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
FOG FORMATION.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT
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