053
FXUS62 KGSP 180349
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 PM EST TUE DEC 17 2024
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 10:15 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2) MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE NC MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OVER THE PAST FEW HRS, WE'VE SEEN VISIBILITY CRASH AT A HANDFUL OF
OUR NC PIEDMONT SITES AND A FEW UPSTATE AND NE GEORGIA SITES AS WELL.
THUS, I ISSUED AN SPS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG AND AREAS OF REDUCED VISI-
BILITY FOR ALL OF OUR NON-MTN ZONES. IF MORE SITES BEGIN REPORTING
FOG, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WITH WINDS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM THRU THE OVERNIGHT IN ADDITION TO LINGERING
LOW-LVL MOISTURE, MORE WIDESPREAD FOG APPEARS LIKELY, MAINLY OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS. LOWS OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE, THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE/LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
DRY CONDITIONS LINGERING THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY OVER THE NC MTNS. THE LATEST CAM RUNS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT MUCH OF THE PRECIP ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GRA-
DUALLY FALLING APART AS IT PUSHES EAST OF THE MTNS. AS SUCH, I LIMIT
ANY LIKELY POPS TO THE NC MTNS WITH POPS CAPPED AT SOLID CHANCE OUT-
SIDE THE MTNS. THE LATEST FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME AMOUNT
OF SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA WED AFTERNOON/
EARLY EVENING, WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING THE FURTHER SE YOU GO. HOWEVER,
IT'S LOOKING LIKE THE FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
NOT MAKE IT EAST OF THE NC MTNS UNTIL PEAK HEATING HAS PASSED AND
CLOUDS REMAIN SCT TO BKN OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY THUNDER
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE THE MTNS. NONETHELESS, I KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER
IN THE MTNS AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU AS THIS WILL BE CLOSER TO PEAK
HEATING AND THE CAMS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED LINE OF ACTI-
VITY REACHING THE NC/TN BORDER AROUND 20Z. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL FOR MOST OF OUR CWA, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER. ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING EAST OF OUR FCST AREA BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO OUR CWA. OTHERWISE, HIGHS ON WED WILL
LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY (TUES), AND WELL-ABOVE CLIMO,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM EST TUESDAY: THE SHORT WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE
NEAR TERM MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY
END DURING THE EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT.
WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES MOVES INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A WEAKENING CLIPPER TYPE SURFACE LOW. THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR NW FLOW SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
USUAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE TN BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RIGHT NOW, THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOISTURE
FLUX OR FORCING, SO SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. EXPECT WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
TO REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, DROPPING TO
NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THEN
DROPPING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY BUT
REMAINING NEARLY STEADY ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 205 PM EST TUESDAY: ANY NW FLOW SNOW ENDS BY SATURDAY MORNING
BUT WINDY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORT
WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY KEEPING LOW H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE AREA.
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN A COLD AIR DAMMING CONFIGURATION SUNDAY AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS EACH
DAY. HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY DROP TO 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY, REMAIN NEARLY STEADY MONDAY, THEN RISE
BACK TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY. LOWS DROP INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: STILL EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE
00Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP
AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING. AS SUCH, I HAVE IFR TO LIFR CIGS
AND VISBY AT MOST TERMINALS. I HAVE VLIFR VISBY AT KHKY AND KAND AS
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHEST THAT THEY WILL SEE DENSE FOG. ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE/LIFT BY ROUGHLY 16Z AT MOST TERMINALS. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AND MOVE THRU THE
FCST AREA TOMORROW EVENING. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING AND THEN PICK
UP FROM THE SW BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME LOW-END GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK: RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER THRU WED NIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURS INTO THE WEEKEND AS DRY HIGH PRE-
SSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. I CANNOT NOT RULE OUT SOME PERIODIC CIG
RESTRICTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IT SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
FOG FORMATION.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JPT
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