634
FXUS62 KGSP 141439
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
939 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING BY
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM: FCST LARGELY ON TRACK FOR TODAY; STILL EXPECTING
VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE DAY. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD
PER RECENT OBS; DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE FOR
NOW, BUT EXPECTING NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL INDUCE GOOD MIXING AND
THAT RH WILL DIP TO NEAR 25 PERCENT IN MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT. WIND
NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE FIRE WX CONCERNS. NEAR TERM STILL LARGELY QUIET.
ALOFT, A RELATIVELY FLAT RIDGE KEEPS A MORE WESTERLY WIND
COMPONENT OVER THE CWA. OFF TO THE WEST, A WEAK, POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SWINGS DOWN OVER THE ROCKIES, BEFORE DIVING TOWARD THE
SOUTH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A QUICK PASSING OF DPVA FROM A VERY WEAK
FRONT REACHING THE NORTHERN NC MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,
MODELS TRY TO ADVECT A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE FORCING, BUT IT QUICKLY DRIES OUT. THERE
COULD BE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW AT THE TN/NC BORDER, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW GIVEN THE AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE AND LACK OF ANY REAL
MOISTURE. WITH THIS UPDATE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS BASED
ON RECENT CAM OUTPUT, SUCH THAT SNOW BEGINS A LITTLE LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. WITH THIS WEAK FRONT, ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD
AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S, WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW AREAS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD DIP
BELOW ZERO, BUT REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA FOR ANY COLD PRODUCTS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY: A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES AS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY. LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT RISE
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EST TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE AREA AS WELL.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON
AN UPPER LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH SOME PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. THESE REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO RAMP
UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON POSSIBLY ENDING AS NW FLOW SNOW ON SUNDAY. TEMPS AND
THERMAL PROFILES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR
PRECIP TO START AS SNOW THEN BECOME A WINTRY MIX THEN RAIN AS A WARM
NOSE MOVES IN. THE DURATION AND RESULTING AMOUNT OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. TEMPS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A
DEEP TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY MONDAY. THE
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING ANY
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AND MOISTURE RETURN. THEY VARY
FROM DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO A POTENT MILLER A SYSTEM. THEY DO AGREE ON
A COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING IN. THEREFORE, HAVE LIMITED POP TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW, WITH TEMP DEPENDENT RAIN OR SNOW. HAVE HIGHS
MONDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. NO VSBY/CIG ISSUES AS
SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS MORE DRY AIR
FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A BIT THIS
MORNING. WIND DIRECTION PREVAIL W/NW AT MOST SITES WITH KGSP AND
KGMU BRIEFLY TURNING MORE W/SW DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW END
GUSTS OF 15-20KTS AT KAVL THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
TURN MORE NE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KCLT, BUT REMAIN
LIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CP
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