599
FXUS62 KGSP 141757
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1257 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS MOVE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY RETURNING BY
THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM: STILL EXPECTING VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKIES THRU THE
DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING ALOFT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, INDUCING
DOWNSLOPE AND GOOD MIXING IN THE PIEDMONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON; REVISED AFTN TEMPS/DEWPTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE MIXING THAN BEFORE. SO FAR FUEL MOISTURES ARE
HIGH ENOUGH THAT NO FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS APPEAR WARRANTED EVEN
IF WINDS BRIEFLY REACH CRITERIA.
REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THRU
WED. ZONALLY ORIENTED HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT ALREADY SUPPORTS
BRISK WINDS NEAR/ABOVE 850MB, AND THAT GRADIENT SHOULD AMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE WIND GUSTS
BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT THIS APPEARS TOO ISOLATED TO
WARRANT AN ACTUAL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. VERY SHALLOW SATURATION
DOES DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE LAYER NEAR THE TN BORDER AS THE
BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE PASSES, BUT THAT MOISTURE COMES AND GOES
QUICKLY. BRIEF LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY RESULT THIS EVENING IN THAT AREA
WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATION; POPS STILL ONLY IN THE SLIGHT-CHANCE
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT, AND WIND CHILLS SHOULD EASILY DROP BELOW ZERO,
WITH -5 OR SLIGHTLY COLDER POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. WILL EVALUATE
MORE CLOSELY FOR 3 PM PACKAGE FOR POSSIBLE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY: A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THURSDAY. DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE TN BORDER COUNTIES AS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN WITH THE FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WEDNESDAY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY RISE TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY. LOWS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT RISE
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 305 AM EST TUESDAY: A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE AREA AS WELL.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHTER SOUTHERLY WIND EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON
AN UPPER LOW OPENING UP AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH SOME PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORT WAVE. THESE REMAIN POSITIVELY TILTED AND PROGRESSIVE. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY AND
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO RAMP
UP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THEN TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON POSSIBLY ENDING AS NW FLOW SNOW ON SUNDAY. TEMPS AND
THERMAL PROFILES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS FOR
PRECIP TO START AS SNOW THEN BECOME A WINTRY MIX THEN RAIN AS A WARM
NOSE MOVES IN. THE DURATION AND RESULTING AMOUNT OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. TEMPS ACTUALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A
DEEP TROUGH THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY MONDAY. THE
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY REGARDING ANY
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AND MOISTURE RETURN. THEY VARY
FROM DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO A POTENT MILLER A SYSTEM. THEY DO AGREE ON
A COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING IN. THEREFORE, HAVE LIMITED POP TO
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW, WITH TEMP DEPENDENT RAIN OR SNOW. HAVE HIGHS
MONDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THRU WED. RELATIVELY TIGHT HEIGHT
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TONIGHT,
REINFORCING DRY MAINLY NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS EXPECTED TO
BACK FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTN VIA LEE TROUGHING. A FEW LOW-END
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT KAVL
AND INFREQUENTLY AT THE OTHER SITES THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. KAVL MAY
SEE A FEW LOW VFR TO MVFR CLOUDS DRIFT UP THE VALLEY BUT LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE OF A CIG. MOSTLY CLEAR AND WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER
WINDS ON WED, VEERING MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY. PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION CIRCA SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
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