850
FXUS62 KGSP 141934
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AHEAD OF
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO OUR
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 315 PM: REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
THRU WED. ZONALLY ORIENTED HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT ALREADY SUPPORTS
BRISK WINDS NEAR/ABOVE 850MB, AND THAT GRADIENT SHOULD AMPLIFY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING. A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS REACH
ADVISORY CRTIERIA NORTHEAST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. WE HAVE
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AVERY COUNTY, AND FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3500 FEET IN MITCHELL, YANCEY, AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES THIS EVENING
THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT. VERY SHALLOW SATURATION DOES DEVELOP IN
THE UPSLOPE LAYER NEAR THE TN BORDER AS THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES, BUT THAT MOISTURE COMES AND GOES QUICKLY. BRIEF LIGHT
SNOWFALL MAY RESULT THIS EVENING IN THAT AREA WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION; POPS STILL ONLY IN THE SLIGHT-CHANCE RANGE.
VIA CAA, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, UNDER CONTINUING CAA AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER PARTIAL THICKNESSES, MORNING LOWS PROBABLY WILL END UP AT
LEAST A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH
WINDS MAY MAINTAIN ENOUGH MIXING TO OFFSET SAID COOLING. LOWS
SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S IN MOST SPOTS. WINDS ARE SHOWN TO
TAPER OFF IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE, SO THE ADVISORY CURRENTLY
IS SET TO END AT 4 AM WED. WIND CHILLS MAY ACTUALLY BOTTOM OUT
AFTER THE ADVISORY WINDS END; OF -5 OR SLIGHTLY COLDER VALUES ARE
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. THIS APPEARS TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE UPDATED
TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO. ELSEWHERE, UNDER
CONTINUING CAA AND SLIGHTLY LOWER PARTIAL THICKNESSES, MORNING LOWS
PROBABLY WILL END UP AT LEAST A LITTLE COOLER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN
THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY MAINTAIN ENOUGH MIXING TO OFFSET
SAID COOLING. LOWS SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE 20S IN MOST SPOTS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL FURTHER DIMINISH, BEING LARGELY LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY'S, ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO, EXCEPTING THE SAVANNAH
VALLEY WHICH LOOKS TO ESCAPE THE WORST OF THE CAA AND WILL RISE
ALMOST TO NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY: HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE SHORT TERM, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOMING DISPLACED BY A RIDGE BY THE END OF
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND, WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AFTER A COLD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN THE INTERIM, A SPEED MAX BRUSHING THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD BRING A BRIEF BOUGHT OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NC/TN BORDER LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND
THE VERY BRIEF NATURE OF THE EVENT SUGGESTS ANY ACCUMS WILL BE
SUB-WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AND IN FACT ONLY CHANCE POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EST TUESDAY: AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS OFF THE EAST
COAST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED...WITH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES FORECAST TO CARVE OUT A VERY
BROAD TROUGH CENTERED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE OF THESE WAVES IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN AS IT EJECTS FROM
TEXAS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL BECOME ACTIVATED ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME
FRAME, WITH MOISTURE AND FORCING EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. WITH THE WARMING TREND THAT
WILL BE UNDERWAY LEADING UP TO THIS TIME, A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
WEATHER THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS EVENT. HOWEVER,
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR COULD BE IN PLACE FOR A PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FRI NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
BEFORE PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE,
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN APPEAR WARRANTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.
TRENDS IN PRECIP PROBABILITIES BECOME UNCERTAIN AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT,
AS THE PATTERN WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE, AND DETAILS REGARDING SHORT WAVE
FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE INCREASINGLY FAST UPPER FLOW ARE
DIFFICULT FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT. AS SUCH,
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE OR MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
TO RE-ACTIVATE THE SOUTHEAST BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BRING PRECIP BACK
INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL POPS ARE
THEREFORE CARRIED THROUGH MUCH OF THAT TIME FRAME. THE BIGGER NEWS
(FOR NOW) WILL BE THE RETURN OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR THRU WED. RELATIVELY TIGHT HEIGHT
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE TONIGHT,
REINFORCING DRY MAINLY NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS EXPECTED TO
BACK FOR A TIME LATER THIS AFTN VIA LEE TROUGHING. A FEW LOW-END
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AT KAVL
AND INFREQUENTLY AT THE OTHER SITES THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT. KAVL MAY
SEE A FEW LOW VFR TO MVFR CLOUDS DRIFT UP THE VALLEY BUT LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE OF A CIG. MOSTLY CLEAR AND WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER
WINDS ON WED, VEERING MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY. PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION CIRCA SATURDAY
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NCZ033-049-050-053.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
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