554
FXUS62 KGSP 151749
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1249 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NOW.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1240 PM EST WEDNESDAY: THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
FLAT AND QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUT WEST,
STRONG SPLIT FLOW WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN WEST COAST, ALLOWS FOR STRONG NW WINDS TO BARREL DOWN OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS. BY TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST
WITH A STOUT BAROCLINIC ZONE. GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE, THIS
SHOULD PASS QUICKLY AND QUIETLY WITH LITTLE FANFARE. BEHIND THE WAVE
IS STRONG NW FLOW, REINFORCING THE DRY, ARCTIC AIR. OTHER THAN SOME
GENERAL CHANGES TO THE AIR ABOVE, NOTHING OF NOTE IS EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS PM
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. AS FAR AS ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, LOW RH VALUES IN THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THOUGH LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED, FUEL MOISTURE IS LOW, SO FIRE DANGER WILL BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHEAST GA...WHERE ONLY ONE METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA IS
NECESSARY. AS FOR TEMPS, TODAY IS A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
YESTERDAY...OR AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 AM EST WEDNESDAY: A SHORT WAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PUSHED A WEAK FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, CAA, AND NORTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW, IT
LOOKS TO BE A LOW END EVENT WITH MAYBE AROUND AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW
IN THE USUAL HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS ALL THE MOUNTAINS WITH WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR A WIND
ADVISORY DURING THAT TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, EXPECT BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL WITH LOWS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 315 AM EST WEDNESDAY: THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY HAS WEAK NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES THAT PHASE SLIGHTLY AS THEY MOVE EAST.
THESE WAVES PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND INTO THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP QUICKLY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT, LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST A
PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS AND I-40 CORRIDOR.
PRECIP WOULD APPEAR TO START AS SNOW OR SLEET AS TEMPS WET BULB DOWN
THEN CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN AS A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS
AND SURFACE TEMPS WARM. ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN,
BUT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND SLEET AND LIGHT ACCRETION OF
ICE ARE POSSIBLE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO SEE ONLY
RAIN, ALTHOUGH, AS OFTEN OCCURS IN THE WINTER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLEET IS POSSIBLE AT PRECIP ONSET BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN.
A SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM WAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY WHICH
PUSHES A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A PRECIP CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS BUT DOESN'T AGREE ON PRECIP CHANCES ELSEWHERE.
SOME ARE DRY WHILE OTHERS SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT A SMALL POP OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS WITH DIMINISHING POP ELSEWHERE.
THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON AN ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME PRECIP MAY MOVE IN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY, BUT DIFFERS GREATLY ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION. HAVE CAPPED
ANY POP AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW, AS THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR/MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ONLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. EXCEPT FOR NW WINDS 5-10 KTS AT KAVL, WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VRBL BY LATE AFTERNOON...
CONTINUING UNTIL LATE THU MORNING. AT THAT POINT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE FROM THE W/SW (EXCEPT W/NW AT KAVL) AND BECOME QUITE
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH 20-25 KTS GUSTS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RETURN SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS STEADILY DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CP/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL
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