139
FXUS62 KGSP 160333
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1033 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MODERATING WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY BEFORE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1011 PM EST WEDNESDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES ONCE AGAIN. SHORTWAVE
NOW ANALYZED ENTERING THE APPALACHIANS, AND STILL LOOKS POISED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY THU AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED IN SHORT ORDER BY A NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE THAT WILL DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA
THU AFTERNOON. THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SEND A WEAK, MOSTLY DRY
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT BEING THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VERY GUSTY (SUB-ADVISORY)
WINDS WILL RESULT, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND 35 TO 45
MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO UNDER VERY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND
CLOSE TO NORMAL THU AFTERNOON AS COMPRESSIONAL EFFECTS DOMINATE IN
THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DESPITE THE WARMER
TEMPS, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP UP THURSDAY, PRECLUDING
CRITICALLY LOW RH. HOWEVER, THE GUSTY WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY
VEGETATION COULD NECESSITATE ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
NORTHEAST GA. A FINAL DETERMINATION WILL BE MADE BY THE ISSUANCE
OF THE 3AM FORECAST PACKAGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EST WEDNESDAY: A QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL WX DAY IS
STILL EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LLVL RIDGE AXIS TRANSLATES ACRS THE
REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE BACKING TO WSW, ALLOWING AN INCREASE
IN HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM
OF AN EASTWARD MOVING S/WV, SWATH OF WAA PCPN REMAINS PROGGED TO
BLOSSOM ACRS THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z MODEL TIMING
OF PCPN ONSET REMAINS UNCHANGED, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING NUMEROUS ACRS
THE MOUNTAINS AND UPSLOPE AREAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
SATURDAY. SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING TRANSLATES EASTWARD
ACRS THE BALANCE OF THE CWFA THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE
PROGGED VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT SOME SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN COINCIDENT WITH PCPN ONSET LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWFA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 PM EST WEDNESDAY: THE REGION IS PROGGED TO BE BENEATH
FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY AS LARGE UPPER L/WV TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EASTERN CONUS. ENERGY PINWHEELING THROUGH THE
FRONT SIDE OF SAID S/WV HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY ALONG AND EAST OF ENCROACHING ARCTIC FRONT. SUNDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LAST DAY OF NEAR CLIMO PIEDMONT HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE ONSET OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT FEATURING
EARLY MORNING MONDAY MINIUMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 IN THE PIEDMONT
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ACRS MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
DESPITE SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR THE MONDAY HOLIDAY, IT WILL BE BRISK
AND CHILLY WITH EVEN THE WARMEST LOWER PIEDMONT MAXIMUM NOT REACHING
40 DEGREES. THE HEART OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CREEP CLOSER ON
TUESDAY WITH PIEDMONT DAYBREAK MINIMUMS MORE SOLIDLY IN THE TEENS
AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN SINGLE DIGITS. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR THE NEW DAY 6 FCST AND GIVEN THE
RECENTLY RECEIVED 12Z OP ECMWF, WILL PLAN ON MAINTAINING A SHOTGUN
SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY AS A RIBBON OF SHALLOW MOISTURE COULD
STREAK IN WITHIN THE FAST WESTERY FLOW ALOFT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE REGION FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY LEADING TO AN ESSENTIALLY DRY AND
CONTINUED COLD FORECAST.
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR ON TAP THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SOME
FEW/SCT CIRRUS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
UPPER SHORTWAVE. VRB WINDS APPEAR LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE PICKING UP MID-MORNING THURSDAY. GUSTS ON
THE ORDER OF 25KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE SW TOMORROW EVERYWHERE, WITH THE USUAL EXCEPTION OF
KAVL, WHICH WILL SEE NW WINDS INSTEAD. FEW/SKC CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE WINDS DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RETURN SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS STEADILY DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/MPR
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...MPR
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