332
FXUS62 KGSP 161749
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1249 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A MODERATING WESTERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES TO AROUND
NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH POCKETS
OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS, ON SATURDAY BEFORE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A MUCH COLDER
AIR MASS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST GA THIS
AFTERNOON FOR GUSTY WINDS AND DRY FUELS.
AS OF 1235 PM EST THURSDAY: A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE
NORTH. BEHIND THE WAVE IS STRONG NW FLOW, REINFORCING THE DRY AIR
AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS ARE PICKING UP THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.
IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT WIND GUSTS REMAIN WELL BELOW AN ADVISORY
CRITERIA WITH 25-30 MPH IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND A FEW 35-45 MPH
GUSTS AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS. MODEST RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMUM VALUES OF 30-35% EXPECTED ACROSS THE MTNS,
AND 25-30% ELSEWHERE. FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON ARE
THEREFORE MAINLY DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW 10-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE. A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST GA THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE ONLY ONE CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL ELEMENT IS
NECESSARY. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS START TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAX TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL, THANKS TO WESTERLY
FLOW/COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 235 AM EST THURSDAY: DRY AND SEASONABLE FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE INCREASES
ON SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE
REGION THEN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. PRECIP BECOMES WIDESPREAD BY
SATURDAY MORNING THEN DIMINISHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE FORCING
AND DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSLATE EAST. FORECAST TEMPS AND THERMAL
PROFILES SHOW ALL RAIN EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE NC MOUNTAINS. ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS, EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN AND SLEET WITH A
TRANSITION TO RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN AS A WARM NOSE KICKS IN. SLEET
ACCUMS AND ICE ACCRETION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHER QPF EXPECTED TO OUR SOUTH.
A SECONDARY WAVE MOVING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY CAUSES COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE AS EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS PRECIP DIMINISHES SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST. RIGHT NOW, TEMPS LOOK HIGH ENOUGH ON SUNDAY
TO KEEP THE PRECIP RAIN, POSSIBLY WITH A LITTLE SNOW MIXING IN
ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, MOISTURE AND FORCING LINGER ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE AREA. EXPECT P-TYPE TO
CHANGE TO ELEVATION AND TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW AS THE WARM
NOSE SHRINKS WITH CAA TAKING PLACE. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AS WELL GIVEN THE LIGHT QPF. PRECIP
CHANCES DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH MOISTURE PULLING OUT OF
THE AREA. WINDY TO POSSIBLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 255 AM EST THURSDAY: GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ENERGY
PINWHEELS THROUGH A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER, OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE AND THEIR ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE ARRAY OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER SOLUTIONS. THE GFS AND ECWMF, AND THEIR ENSEMBLES,
HAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION. THE CANADIAN AND ITS
ENSEMBLES ARE WETTER WITH SOME VERSION OF WINTRY PRECIP FOR THE
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE GONE WITH THE
MODEL BLEND FOR NOW, CAPPING ANY POP AT SLIGHT CHANCE. TEMPS BECOME
VERY COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK 20 DEGREES OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS COMMON THERE. WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING AT
LEAST INTO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TERRITORY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FEW-TO-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 090-110 RANGE WILL STEADILY SCATTER
OUT THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, WITH SKC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. PIEDMONT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE FROM THE W/SW THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KTS
EXPECTED AT MOST SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING WESTERLY/CROSS-
VALLEY FLOW WILL MAKE THE WIND FORECAST TRICKY AT KAVL, BUT EXPECT
GUSTINESS TO INCREASE THERE FROM THE W/NW BY MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS RELENTING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VRBL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP/
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY RETURN SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS STEADILY DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. A VERY COLD AND
DRY AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-
017-018-026-028-029.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CP/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL
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