390
FXUS62 KGSP 191810
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
110 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING NEAR THE TENNESSEE
BORDER AND LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH GOOD SNOW ACCUMULATION
LIKELY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT
WILL BRING BITTER COLD TO THE REGION FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. A STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID-WEEK, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1235 PM SUNDAY...THE SITUATION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED MORE OR LESS OVER
THE NW PIEDMONT AND MOVING AWAY. THIS HAS TAKEN THE PRECIP ON THE
EAST SIDE OUT OF THE EASTERN ZONES, SO PRECIP PROBS WERE DROPPED
THERE. DEVELOPING W/SW FLOW BEHIND THE LOW WAS STEADILY MIXING
OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS/UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GA,
WHICH WILL HELP US REACH OUR HIGH TEMPS. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF
LIGHT PRECIP WILL SKIRT THE NC MTNS ALONG THE TN BORDER WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIP FALLING AS SNOW AS THE WINDS HAVE VEERED AND
THE COLD ADVECTION WAS UNDERWAY. HIGH TEMPS HAVE PROBABLY ALREADY
HAPPENED OVER THE MTNS. LOOKING UPSTREAM, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE TO BE FORCED UPSLOPE LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO THAT PART OF THE FORECAST STILL
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHEAST,
PROGGED TO REACH THE TIDEWATER REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS NOTED
BY PREVIOUS FORECASTERS, THE UPSLOPE LAYER BECOMES ESPECIALLY COLD
SUPPORTING MUCH GREATER SNOW RATIOS THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE, LIKELY
APPROACHING 20 TO 1. SMALL SBCAPE IS DEPICTED ALONG THE TN BORDER
WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE PRECIP PRODUCTION. RATES UP TO AROUND AN
INCH PER HOUR MAY OCCUR IN SOME VERY HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES
THIS AFTERNOON; BEST ICE NUCLEATION OCCURS AFTER SUNSET ALTHOUGH
BY THEN MOISTURE BECOMES A BIT HARDER TO COME BY. RETAINED EXISTING
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. A LATE ADDITION (AFTER 4 AM)
WAS TO ADD HIGH ELEVATIONS OF BUNCOMBE COUNTY, ABOVE 3500 FEET, TO
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
IN PARTICULAR ALONG THE RIDGES NORTHEAST OF ASHEVILLE. WEAVERVILLE
IS LIKELY TO SEE UP TO AROUND AN INCH, AND LESS IN THE CITY OF
ASHEVILLE ITSELF.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 40 MPH MAY
OCCUR ON RIDGETOPS, AND BASED ON EXPECTED LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS (BELOW ZERO ON HIGHER RIDGETOPS,
AND 10-15 IN THE FOOTHILLS), WIND CHILLS EASILY MEET PREVIOUS
EXPECTATIONS OF COLD WX ADVISORY CRITERIA IN VALLEYS/FOOTHILLS AND
EXTREME COLD WARNING IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALL AREAS PREVIOUSLY
IN EXTREME COLD WATCH ARE NOW IN ONE OF THOSE PRODUCTS; ADVISORY
CRTIERIA LOOK TO BE MET IN SOME ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AREAS SO THAT
WAS ADDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WE MISS CRITERIA BY ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH THE INDICATION IS THAT ACCUMS MIGHT ONLY BE ON THE ORDER OF
1-3 INCHES IN THE TN BORDER COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE UPSLOPE AREAS,
THE DRY SNOW FALLING INTO TEMPS BELOW THE UPPER 20S SHOULD RESULT
IN VERY SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS IN PLACES WHERE ROADS ARE NOT
TREATED. THIS COULD RESULT IN A HIGH IMPACT TO TRANSPORTATION.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 3:25 AM EST SUNDAY...THE SHORT-TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
MONDAY WITH VERY BROAD UPPER TROFING COVERING MOST OF THE CONUS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO, THE TROF BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND DE-
AMPLIFY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER OUR AREA AND THEN LIFT NE AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
AT THE SFC, BROAD, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SPREADING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE PERIOD BEGINS. THE HIGH WILL LINGER OVER OUR
AREA INTO TUESDAY AND THEN GET REINFORCED FROM THE WEST TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME, A LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NE AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. WITH THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE DURING THAT TIME, IT'S STILL LIKELY THAT ANY PRECIP
THAT DOES MATERIALIZE WOULD BE SNOW FOR OUR FCST AREA. OVERALL,
PRECIP CHANCES HAVE TRENDED UP A BIT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE I-85 CORRIDOR, BUT THE QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST
WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED FOR OUR FCST AREA.
NONETHELESS, THIS DOES PRODUCE ABOUT A HALF INCH OF SNOW OVER
OUR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN-MOST ZONES LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED.
WITH THE COLD SFC/ROAD TEMPS ALREADY IN PLACE, ANY SNOWFALL COULD
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON UNTREATED ROADS. THE OTHER MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT LINGERS
THRU THE PERIOD. THIS AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND WIND CHILLS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING EACH DAY ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY AS THE PERIOD BEGINS MONDAY MORNING,
WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST
OF THE MTNS EARLY MONDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT TO LOW TEENS LIKELY FOR
MOST OF OUR LOWER TERRAIN. WIND CHILL VALUES AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE
AS LOW TUESDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BE WEAKER, HOWEVER WINDS PICK
UP AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY
COLD WIND CHILLS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 3:05 AM EST SUNDAY...THE EXTENDED FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
WEDNESDAY WITH BROAD UPPER TROFING FLATTENING OVER OUR AREA AND
HEIGHTS BRIEFLY RECOVERING. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROF WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST AND OVER OUR REGION. BY EARLY SATURDAY,
MOST OF THE CURRENT LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS THE UPPER TROF LIFT-
ING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH FLAT UPPER RIDGING SPREADING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC, A MOIST FRONTAL BOUN-
DARY IS EXPECTED TO BE LINGERING JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE GETS
REINFORCED FROM THE WEST ACROSS OUR FCST AREA AND LINGERS WELL INTO
THURSDAY. BY LATE THURSDAY, MOST OF THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER SFC LOW JUST OFF THE SE COAST AND THEN
QUICKLY MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD AND UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. HOW
FAST THIS HAPPENS STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS. AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THRU OUR AREA FROM THE WEST, BUT IT'S LOOKING PRETTY DRY
AT THIS POINT. IN ITS WAKE, ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO END THE PERIOD. AS SUCH,
THE PERIOD REMAINS DRY THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SOLID CHANCE
POPS BY THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD NEXT SUNDAY. THE COLD AIRMASS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AS THE PERIOD BEGINS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
MODIFY AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON. TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL-BELOW CLIMATOLOGY THRU FRIDAY, BUT SHOULD WARM TO NEAR-NORMAL
VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS LINGERING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND UPSTATE SC BEHIND A DEPARTING
SFC LOW. THINK THE CEILING WILL MAKE IT TO MVFR IN SHORT ORDER AT
KCLT. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE IN-AND-OUT OF AN MVFR BKN CEILING
RESTRICTION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WHEN HEATING IS LOST AND THE
ARCTIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. SPEAKING OF WHICH, THE FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST, BUT THE
WIND PROFILE AT TCLT WAS STILL SW UP TO ABOUT 5K FEET, SO THINK
THE WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR AT KCLT CLOSER TO 20Z. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND THEN STRONGER AND MORE GUSTY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR
FROM LATE AFTERNOON ONWARD OUTSIDE THE MTNS. AT KAVL, WITH THE
DEVELOPING NW FLOW PUSHING MOISTURE UP THE VALLEY, EXPECT THE MVFR
RESTRICTION TO PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS, BUT FOR NOW THE PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO SMALL
TO INCLUDE. THE MOISTURE PULLS OUT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
WITH ALL TERMINALS VFR BY THE START OF MORNING OPERATIONS. SKY
SHOULD CLEAR, BUT WIND WILL REMAIN NW AND GUSTY.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY NW WINDS LINGER AT KAVL THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, LINGERING
MUCH OF THE WEEK, BRINGING EXCEPTIONALLY COLD TEMPERATURES BUT
MOSTLY VFR. THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TUESDAY EVENING
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 69 1906 24 2009 53 1954 -13 1985
1890
KCLT 71 1951 30 1983 53 1890 -2 1985
1929 1893
1927
KGSP 72 1933 30 1983 56 1922 1 1985
RECORDS FOR 01-21
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 1927 8 1985 59 1927 -16 1985
KCLT 73 1935 24 1985 58 1954 -5 1985
KGSP 73 1927 26 1985 59 1933 -4 1985
RECORDS FOR 01-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 73 1932 21 1960 59 1933 0 1970
KCLT 74 1937 29 1970 60 1906 5 1970
KGSP 72 1938 31 1970 58 1933 3 1893
1921
RECORDS FOR 01-23
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 73 1927 20 2005 54 1999 1 1936
1936
KCLT 75 1927 27 1970 59 1999 9 2003
KGSP 73 1974 30 1970 58 1999 5 1893
1927
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR GAZ010-017-018-026.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ033-048>052-
058.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>064.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ051-053-
058-059.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST MONDAY
FOR SCZ101>103.
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...PM/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...
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