864
FXUS62 KGSP 210615
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY BY THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL ALONG WITH A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 12:45 AM EST TUESDAY: SOME BANDS OF HIGH CIRRUS HAVE BEGUN TO
MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER STILL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY RE-
MAINS IN PLACE FOR AVERY COUNTY UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING, AND FOR OUR
ZONES ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 UNTIL 10 AM. IT'S STILL POSSIBLE
THAT THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS COULD PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH AS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
WHICH BRINGS US TO TUESDAY...WHICH WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW. VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTED
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BECAUSE OF THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER TROF.
THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP STRETCHED OUT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHOUT
MUCH (IF ANY) POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP REACHING THIS FAR
NORTH. THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS AT MID AND UPPER LVLS,
WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY. MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT WITH SUCH
A DRY AND DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER, MUCH OF WHAT SHOULD DEVELOP FROM
THE MID-LVL CLOUDS WILL BE LOST TO EVAPORATION. SNOW FLURRIES ARE
PROBABLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THIS LIFT STRENGTHENS, BUT THE CHANCES
OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND AND ACCUMULATING ARE NO BETTER THAN
SLIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST GA AND THE UPSTATE SOUTH/EAST OF I-85, MAYBE
UP TO 30 PCT ACROSS THE LAKELANDS/LOWER PIEDMONT IN THE VERY LATE
AFTERNOON. ONE COULD TURN THIS AROUND AND SAY THAT IT IS LIKELY (OR
MORE THAN LIKELY) THAT NO ACCUMULATION WILL HAPPEN IN THESE AREAS.
EVEN IF SOMETHING WERE TO ACCUMULATE, IT WOULD MORE THAN LIKELY AMOUNT
TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH OF A FLUFFY DRY SNOW. THIS IS NOT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. IN THE MEAN TIME, WE WILL
MIND THE FORECAST GUIDANCE AND CONSIDER A REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO
THAT WOULD BE AROUND ONE INCH OR SO SOUTHEAST OF I-85. BUT, AGAIN, THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A NON-EVENT. TEMPERATURES,
MEANWHILE, WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL, STAYING BELOW 32F IN
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA AND ONLY GETTING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THAT OVER
THE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 100 AM TUESDAY: THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD PICKS UP
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
APPALACHIANS. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING
BY MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA AND MID 30S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS RATHER PERTURBED HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED, HOWEVER, AND NO QPF RESPONSE IS DEPICTED IN GUIDANCE OWING
TO VERY DRY AIR AND A LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN. THUS, THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY WITH GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION COMMENCING
THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION WANES AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES
SLOWLY WARM. EFFICIENT OVERNIGHT RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL STILL
SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY: A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DIG OVER
THE PLAINS AND RACE EAST TOWARDS THE CFWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OVER THE REMNANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LIFT IT NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN-THIRD OF THE CONUS. ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANY
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE CFWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AS THE FLOW
ALOFT FLATTENS AND THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MODIFIES BY THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL-BELOW NORMAL AND REBOUND TO
NEAR-NORMAL VALUES BY THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE TRY TO PAINT
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM BY D7, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM
FOR ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
06Z TAF PERIOD THANKS TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. EXPECT
HIGH CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SPREAD OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE MORNING WITH CLOUDS BECOMING BKN TO OVC BY DAYBREAK. VFR
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY SCT FROM NW TO
SE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WEATHER OR NOT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN QUICKLY
LIFTS NE AND OFF THE SE COAST WILL BRING DEEPER MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO PRODUCE PRECIP AT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS. WITH THE COLD AIR IN
PLACE THRU THE TAF PERIOD, ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. HOWEVER, AT THIS
TIME PRECIP CHANCES AREN'T QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN
ANY OF THE TAFS. IF ANY TERMINALS DO GET SNOW, THE MOST LIKELY TIME
WOULD BE AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN NWLY AT KAVL THRU THE PERIOD WITH SOME
LOW-END GUSTS EXPECTED AT THE SITE LATER THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE THE MTNS,
WINDS WILL FAVOR A NELY DIRECTION THRU THE MORNING AND THEN GRADUALLY
TURN W TO NW THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO A MORE NLY DIRECTION
LATER THIS EVENING TO END THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER ROUND OF REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY, VFR, AND COLD THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 01-21
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 72 1927 8 1985 59 1927 -16 1985
KCLT 73 1935 24 1985 58 1954 -5 1985
KGSP 73 1927 26 1985 59 1933 -4 1985
RECORDS FOR 01-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 73 1932 21 1960 59 1933 0 1970
KCLT 74 1937 29 1970 60 1906 5 1970
KGSP 72 1938 31 1970 58 1933 3 1893
1921
RECORDS FOR 01-23
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 73 1927 20 2005 54 1999 1 1936
1936
KCLT 75 1927 27 1970 59 1999 9 2003
KGSP 73 1974 30 1970 58 1999 5 1893
1927
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ070>072-082.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ008>014-019-102-103-105>109.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...AR/JPT
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JPT
CLIMATE...JPT
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