325
FXUS62 KGSP 201142
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
642 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT OUR AREA THIS MORNING.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN LATER TODAY, BRINGING VERY COLD
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. A DRY PATTERN WITH A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 640 AM THURSDAY: PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE ARCTIC FRONT. PRECIP IS SNOW FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT AN RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND NE GA WHERE TEMPS ARE WARMER. THIS
PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE NOON, WITH NW FLOW SNOW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING/CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE TN BORDER.
A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA
PUSHING AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND FRONT, ALONG WITH LINGERING DEEP
MOISTURE, WILL BRING A RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NC MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING WHICH LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON IN CONTINUED NW FLOW
AND CAA. THE STRENGTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL ALSO LEAD TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE AS WELL.
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH IN ISOLATED AREAS WHERE
BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP. CURRENTLY DON'T EXPECT ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPSTATE, BUT IF THEY WERE TO DEVELOP,
THEN AN INCH COULD FALL AND A QUICK SHORT FUSED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, ADDITIONAL ACCUMS WILL MAINLY BE LIMITED TO
THE TN BORDER COUNTIES DESPITE THE LONGER PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS.
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE VALLEYS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES, AND LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT, WILL
EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THE TN BORDER COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE VERY COLD AIR
MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMP CURVE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH INCREASING WINDS ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO 5 BELOW OR
LESS. THE COLD ADVISORY IS WELL PLACED FOR TODAY. THAT CHANGES
TONIGHT WHEN LOWS DROP TO 15 TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO
5 BELOW ACROSS MANY OF THE VALLEYS. SHELTERED VALLEYS WON'T BE AS
COLD AS THE WINDS WILL BE LOWER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE GREATER COVERAGE
OF COLD WIND CHILLS, WILL EXPAND THE COLD ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ALL
THE NC MOUNTAINS. ANY 15 BELOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE LIMITED
MAINLY TO LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WINDS
QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING, SO WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 0 WITH MAINLY TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.
DESPITE THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WIND GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 45 MPH FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS LIMITING THE
NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY: THE CENTER OF A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE SLOWLY MODIFYING, SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REBOUND TO ABOUT 10-15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 25%, WHICH
MAY POSE AN ELEVATED FIRE WX THREAT. FORTUNATELY, WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOT AS COLD AS THURSDAY NIGHT,
BUT STILL 8-12 DEG BELOW NORMAL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THRU
THE AREA WITHIN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SW, COMBINING WITH LOW RH TO
ONCE AGAIN POSE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WX RISK. HIGHS WILL WARM TO 5-8
DEG BELOW NORMAL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE, AS DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES
THE EASTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THRU THE FLOW,
AND MAY TRY TO INDUCE A SFC WAVE IN THE GULF OR OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY. BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY MOISTURE
WITH THOSE FEATURES SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
WHICH MAY BRING A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS
HAS A QUICK SHOT OF QPF WITH THE FROPA, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. THE
NBM CONTINUES TO BE DRY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW NW FLOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY,
WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW MAY TAP
INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE AND BRING MENTIONABLE POPS BACK INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. OVERALL,
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS UP TO 10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING CIGS TO IFR AND AT MVFR TO IFR VSBY. SHOWERS
MOVE EAST BY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES. GUSTY NW WIND PICKS UP
BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING. KAVL WILL KEEP MVFR
THEN LOW VFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. GUSTS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THERE AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GAZ010.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ035>037-
053-056-057-059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-
048>052-058.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>052-058.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ053-059-062>065.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK/JDL
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH
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