681
FXUS62 KGSP 201752
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1252 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY, BRINGING VERY COLD WEATHER
TO END THE WEEK. A DRY PATTERN WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1234 PM THURSDAY: THE MORNING SNOW BAND HAS EXITED THE
FORECAST AREA, SO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY EAST OF THE MTNS WAS
LET GO ON SCHEDULE AT NOON. IMPROVING NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
A BOUNDARY WAS MAKING QUICK WORK OF THE LOW CLOUDINESS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE, SO EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN EAST OF THE MTNS. THE SUN
AND THE GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD MAKE QUICK WORK OF THE SNOW COVER
OUTSIDE OF REALLY SHADED SPOTS, BUT EVEN THERE, HIGH TEMPS MAY
ALLOW SOME OF THE SNOW COVER TO MELT. AT THIS TIME, NOT EXPECTING
ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ON ROADS TONIGHT BECAUSE MOST SHOULD DRY
OFF BY THE END OF THE SUNNY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG
THE TN/NC BORDER WHERE CLOUD TOP TEMPS WERE WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. THE ADVISORY WILL BE KEPT THERE THRU THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE
MID ATLANTIC TODAY, WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW HELPING TO PUSH AN ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NON-DIURNAL TEMP CURVE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO 5 BELOW OR LESS. THE COLD
ADVISORY IS WELL PLACED FOR TODAY. THAT CHANGES TONIGHT WHEN LOWS
DROP TO 15 TO AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
REMAINING IN PLACE, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO 5 BELOW ACROSS
MANY OF THE VALLEYS. SHELTERED VALLEYS WON'T BE AS COLD AS THE
WINDS WILL BE LOWER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE GREATER COVERAGE OF COLD
WIND CHILLS, WILL EXPAND THE COLD ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ALL THE NC
MOUNTAINS. ANY 15 BELOW WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE LIMITED MAINLY
TO LOCATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WINDS
QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING, SO WIND CHILL VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 0 WITH MAINLY TEENS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS.
DESPITE THE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WIND GUSTS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 45 MPH FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
LIMITING THE NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM THURSDAY: THE CENTER OF A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE SLOWLY MODIFYING, SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REBOUND TO ABOUT 10-15 DEG BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 25%, WHICH
MAY POSE AN ELEVATED FIRE WX THREAT. FORTUNATELY, WINDS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NOT AS COLD AS THURSDAY NIGHT,
BUT STILL 8-12 DEG BELOW NORMAL. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THRU
THE AREA WITHIN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WHICH MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO PICK UP SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SW, COMBINING WITH LOW RH TO
ONCE AGAIN POSE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WX RISK. HIGHS WILL WARM TO 5-8
DEG BELOW NORMAL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL BE 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU
MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE, AS DRY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES
THE EASTERN CONUS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THRU THE FLOW,
AND MAY TRY TO INDUCE A SFC WAVE IN THE GULF OR OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY. BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY MOISTURE
WITH THOSE FEATURES SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
WHICH MAY BRING A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA. THE 00Z GFS
HAS A QUICK SHOT OF QPF WITH THE FROPA, WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY. THE
NBM CONTINUES TO BE DRY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW NW FLOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER PATTERN MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY,
WITH A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MIDWEST. RETURN FLOW MAY TAP
INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE AND BRING MENTIONABLE POPS BACK INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. OVERALL,
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS UP TO 10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EAST OF THE MTNS, THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS
WERE MOVING EAST OF KCLT, SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
THE TAF PERIOD. THE SNOW HAS ENDED. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE
SCT/FEW HIGH-BASED STRATOCU WITH A NW WIND AND FREQUENT GUSTS. KAVL
IS THE LAST REMAINING TROUBLE SPOT, AND A BRIEF CEILING COULD
STILL HAPPEN UNTIL WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SKY CLEAR AND A LIGHT NW WIND AT
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WIND MAY GO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY IF THE HIGH CAN BRIDGE OVER THE
MTNS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
048>052-058.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-
048>052-058.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ053-059-062>065.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK/JDL
NEAR TERM...PM/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH
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