071
FXUS62 KGSP 201930
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA, BRINGING
VERY COLD WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRY,
WHILE A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 234 PM THURSDAY: STILL HAVE A WELL-DEVELOPED NW FLOW SNOW
GOING ON ALONG THE TN BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE KMRX SHOWING
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS NORTHEAST TN INTO SOUTHWEST KY, MOVING TOWARD
WESTERN NC AND UP THE SLOPE. CLOUD TOP TEMPS CONTINUE TO CLIMB
WELL INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SO ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS
LIKE A NEAR CERTAINTY ALONG THE TN BORDER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
THEN TAPERING OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE
BORDER WILL PROBABLY GET CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA ACCUMULATIONS,
BUT MOST PLACES SHOULD STAY BELOW THAT. MEANWHILE, EAST OF THE
MTNS, DOWNSLOPE WARMING, MIXING, AND DRYING CONTINUES TO WORK AWAY
AT THE REMAINING LOW CLOUD FIELD TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF METRO
CHARLOTTE. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE.
OTHERWISE...A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TODAY. ONCE THAT HAPPENS, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
BACK AROUND MORE WESTERLY AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING, BRINGING
AN END TO THE UPSLOPE PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
GRADUALLY RELAXING OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS.
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS WILL BE THE ROAD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING AND MUCH OF THE NC PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHERN UPSTATE HAD SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING, THE THINKING IS THAT BLACK ICE WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. FOR
OPENERS, WE JUST DIDN'T HAVE THAT MUCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
TO RESULT IN PERSISTENT RUNOFF. MOSTLY, THOUGH, WE'VE CLEARED OFF
ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES ARE SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH HAS
WARMED THE GROUND. THAT, COMBINED WITH A DRY AND GUSTY NW WIND,
SHOULD DRY UP MOST ALL ROAD SURFACES BY SUNSET, LEAVING ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHADY SPOTS. FOR THAT REASON, AN SPS WILL NOT BE
ISSUED. SECOND ORDER OF BUSINESS, AND SPEAKING OF THE LOW TEMPS,
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMP TREND AND MIN TEMP. WHILE
WE SHOULD HAVE TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING, TO THE POINT
WHERE THE APPARENT TEMP/WIND CHILL WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH
TO REACH OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
NOTE THAT UPWARD CHANGES IN THE WIND SPEED FORECAST OR DOWNWARD
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FORECAST COULD CHANGE THIS AND WE COULD ISSUE
ONE LATER. SOME LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BIG TOWNS AND CITIES COULD
BRIEFLY REACH CRITERIA. WE HAVE CRITERIA FOR A REASON. WE DON'T MEET
IT, SO WE WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF. THIRD ORDER OF
BUSINESS WILL BE THE HIGH TEMP FRIDAY. BRIGHT SUN BUT A COLD AIR
MASS AND WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK...ON
THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY: SPRAWLING, DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND...WITH FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT 12-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI
NIGHT/SAT NIGHT...WHILE MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MINOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD MATERIALIZE EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, BUT WINDS WILL BE A NON-ISSUE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY: A GENERAL, DRY W/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED, BEFORE A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES DIGGING SE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS
AMPLIFY THE PATTERN/CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN THE INTERIM, A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. TEMPS MODERATE AFTER
TUE AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL, BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
LARGE DIURNAL RANGES, AS MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR-NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES
COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE 30% AT
MOST. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE WED NIGHT/THU,
AS UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE/FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION. FOR THE TIME BEING, POPS ARE LIMITED TO
THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EAST OF THE MTNS, THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUDS
WERE MOVING EAST OF KCLT, SO VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
THE TAF PERIOD. THE SNOW HAS ENDED. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL HAVE
SCT/FEW HIGH-BASED STRATOCU WITH A NW WIND AND FREQUENT GUSTS. KAVL
IS THE LAST REMAINING TROUBLE SPOT, AND A BRIEF CEILING COULD
STILL HAPPEN UNTIL WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SKY CLEAR AND A LIGHT NW WIND AT
ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WIND MAY GO
LIGHT/VARIABLE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY IF THE HIGH CAN BRIDGE OVER THE
MTNS EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-
048>052-058.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-
048>052-058.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NCZ053-059-062>065.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...PM
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