641
FXUS62 KGSP 202302
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA, BRINGING
VERY COLD WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DRY,
WHILE A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 558 PM THURSDAY: NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW CONTINUES TO TAPER OFF
ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER WITH RADAR RETURNS FROM KMRX DROPPING OFF
MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST HOUR. UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO
SCATTERED, WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF FURTHER DRYING OF THE LOW-LEVELS
AND QUICK DEMISE OF ANY LINGERING MOISTURE. THUS, WILL LET THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE, BUT A COUPLE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE ALL ACTIVITY IS WRAPPED
UP.
OTHERWISE...A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT. ONCE THAT HAPPENS, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BACK AROUND
MORE WESTERLY AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO THE
UPSLOPE PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXING
OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS.
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS WILL BE THE ROAD CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW FREEZING AND MUCH OF THE NC PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND NORTHERN UPSTATE HAD SOME LIGHT SNOW THIS
MORNING, THE THINKING IS THAT BLACK ICE WILL NOT BE A CONCERN. FOR
OPENERS, WE JUST DIDN'T HAVE THAT MUCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP
TO RESULT IN PERSISTENT RUNOFF. MOSTLY, THOUGH, WE'VE CLEARED OFF
ENOUGH THAT MOST PLACES ARE SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WHICH HAS
WARMED THE GROUND. THAT, COMBINED WITH A DRY AND GUSTY NW WIND,
SHOULD DRY UP MOST ALL ROAD SURFACES BY SUNSET, LEAVING ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHADY SPOTS. FOR THAT REASON, AN SPS WILL NOT BE
ISSUED. SECOND ORDER OF BUSINESS, AND SPEAKING OF THE LOW TEMPS,
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMP TREND AND MIN TEMP. WHILE
WE SHOULD HAVE TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING, TO THE POINT
WHERE THE APPARENT TEMP/WIND CHILL WILL NOT DROP LOW ENOUGH
TO REACH OUR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
NOTE THAT UPWARD CHANGES IN THE WIND SPEED FORECAST OR DOWNWARD
CHANGES TO THE TEMP FORECAST COULD CHANGE THIS AND WE COULD ISSUE
ONE LATER. SOME LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BIG TOWNS AND CITIES COULD
BRIEFLY REACH CRITERIA. WE HAVE CRITERIA FOR A REASON. WE DON'T MEET
IT, SO WE WILL LET THE FORECAST SPEAK FOR ITSELF. THIRD ORDER OF
BUSINESS WILL BE THE HIGH TEMP FRIDAY. BRIGHT SUN BUT A COLD AIR
MASS AND WEAKENING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN CHECK...ON
THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY: SPRAWLING, DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASS OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND...WITH FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES
EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS ARE FORECAST AT 12-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI
NIGHT/SAT NIGHT...WHILE MAXES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. MINOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD MATERIALIZE EACH AFTERNOON
DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, BUT WINDS WILL BE A NON-ISSUE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY: A GENERAL, DRY W/NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED, BEFORE A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES DIGGING SE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS
AMPLIFY THE PATTERN/CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN THE INTERIM, A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. TEMPS MODERATE AFTER
TUE AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL, BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
LARGE DIURNAL RANGES, AS MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR-NORMAL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES
COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE 30% AT
MOST. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE WED NIGHT/THU,
AS UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE/FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION. FOR THE TIME BEING, POPS ARE LIMITED TO
THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE.
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AT ALL TERMINALS
AS LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN ERADICATED IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. THE FORECAST REMAINS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS BEING ON WINDS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY RELAXING OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER FRIDAY, BUT GUSTS WILL PERSIST
AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-
048>053-058-059-062>065.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...PM/TW
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...TW
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