873
FXUS62 KGSP 210813
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
313 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND BRINGS TEMPERATURES ABOVE-NORMAL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM FRIDAY: KICKING OFF THE NEAR TERM IN A MUCH QUIETER
PATTERN. ALOFT, QUASI-ZONAL FLOW STREAMS ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A STOUT CONTINENTAL HIGH SPILLS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, SUPPRESSING ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A
WEAK BLIP IN THE GENERAL FLOW HICCUPS OVER THE AREA, BUT MOISTURE
BEING HELD OFF TO THE SOUTH, WILL PASS UNEVENTFULLY. WINDS CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
LIGHT TO EVEN CALM BY FRIDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE THE SO CALLED-
BIGGER STORY FOR THIS FORECAST AS VERY COLD TEMPS SPILL INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY AND
START THE TREND OF WARMING BACK UP THROUGH THE NEAR AND INTO THE
NEXT FORECAST PERIOD. ALL IN ALL, DRY AND QUIET.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM FRI: THE REMNANT OF THE ARCTIC ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE PASSES. THE WAVE
WILL INDUCE SOME DEGREE OF RETURN FLOW, BUT APPEAR TO BE IN CONSENSUS
THAT THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN BUT NO POP IS
WARRANTED. LIKEWISE, THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE IN THE UPSLOPE
LAYER WHEN NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WAVE.
A SECONDARY ANTICYCLONE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE MID-MS
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WHICH LOOKS TO BE MODIFIED ENOUGH
TO BRING TEMPS BACK TO WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL, AND MINIMUM
DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. THE
MAJOR DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT
ANOTHER WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE CROSSING TEXAS SUNDAY AND BRINGING A
BROAD AREA OF GULF MOISTURE NORTH OF THE COASTAL FRONT, AND SPURRING
CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF TEXAS. ALL OF THAT BASICALLY STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA SO POPS REMAIN TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM FRI: DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORKWEEK; CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW LOOKS TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, OFFERING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE RETURN. UNDER
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE, THICKNESSES WILL RISE AS AIRMASS MODIFIES,
AND TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
HIGHS ON THE ORDER OF 10 ABOVE NORMAL TUE. LOW DEWPOINTS AND SPARSE
CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LARGE DIURNAL
TEMP SWINGS. A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE THRU THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND/OR UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION CIRCA TUESDAY, CARRYING A WEAK COLD
FRONT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPS. NW FLOW POPS
BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE TN BORDER AREA BUT WITH TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR
ONLY RAIN. TEMPS FALL BACK SLIGHTLY, A COUPLE DEGREES, FOR WED. A
MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE/FRONT CROSSES THE MID-MS VALLEY ON WED AND IS
DEPICTED IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO PASS THE APPALACHIANS SOMETIME
THU. TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO WARRANT
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST AREAS CENTERED ON THURSDAY, WITH LIKELY VALUES
ALONG THE TN BORDER. THE SHORTWAVE HELPS TO CARVE OUT A FULL-LATITUDE
EASTERN TROUGH TO END THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THU WITH COLDER CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW THEREAFTER; SOME HIGH ELEVATIONS
COOL ENOUGH THU MORNING FOR A SNOW MENTION WITH THE CHANCES WHICH ARE
INCLUDED THEN, BUT THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR NW FLOW SNOW TO
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THU NIGHT; SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD RESULT IN THE BORDER AREA AT THAT TIME.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS ANY CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS AWAY. A
FEW LOW END GUSTS CONTINUE, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
WINDS STAY MOSTLY NW AT A FEW TERMINALS, WITH KGSP/KGMU TURNING MORE
SW. ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM OR VRB FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-
048>053-058-059-062>065.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CP
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